Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 15

Date: 13 May 2023, Saturday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Referee: Kubota Y. (Jpn)


	Fagiano Okayama		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	4	Watch
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	1.85	3.35	4.1
	1.93	3.42	4.42
	1.83	3.1	4.2
	1.94	3.32	4.15	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.59)	3.27 ↓ (3.43)	4.12 ↓ (5.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
49.1%

Draw
28.4%

Omiya Ardija
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

26.4%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

26%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fagiano Okayama's form might have worsened.

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Omiya Ardija's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Omiya Ardija, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Fagiano Okayama - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Users Predictions: Fagiano Okayama will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Okayama won 3.

Okayama is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Omiya has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Okayama is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Okayama won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Okayama won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J2 League
07.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
03.05.23	Fagiano Okayama - Montedio Yamagata	2:0 ✺
29.04.23	Blaublitz Akita - Fagiano Okayama	0:1 ✺
22.04.23	Fagiano Okayama - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:1 ✺
16.04.23	Vegalta Sendai - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWWTT
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
07.05.23	Omiya Ardija - Tokushima Vortis	1:3 ✺
03.05.23	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
29.04.23	JEF United Chiba - Omiya Ardija	1:0 ✺
22.04.23	Omiya Ardija - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:3 ✺
16.04.23	Blaublitz Akita - Omiya Ardija	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.07.22	Fagiano Okayama - Omiya Ardija	4:2
26.03.22	Omiya Ardija - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
21.08.21	Fagiano Okayama - Omiya Ardija	1:0
16.05.21	Omiya Ardija - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
18.10.20	Fagiano Okayama - Omiya Ardija	3:2
05.09.20	Omiya Ardija - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
10.08.19	Fagiano Okayama - Omiya Ardija	0:1

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