Match Info

J1 League - Round 32

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Machida Zelvia		Fagiano Okayama

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	5	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.95
	1.73	3.93	5.29
	1.70	3.42	5.41	Watch
	1.66	3.85	5.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.59)	3.73 ↓ (3.91)	5.21 ↓ (5.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
56.6%

Draw
25.3%

Fagiano Okayama
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

24%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.5%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Okayama (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 3. Shoji G. 19. Nakayama Y. 11. Masuyama A. 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 26. Hayashi K. 20. Nishimura T. 10. Na Sang-Ho 15. Duke M.	49. Brodersen S. (G) 4. Abe K. 18. Tagami D. 43. Suzuki Y. 26. Motoyama H. 3. Fujii K. 14. Tabei R. 17. Sueyoshi R. 19. Iwabuchi H. 8. Esaka A. 22. Ichimi K.
Substitutes
9. Fujio S. 2. Imai T. 49. Kuwayama K. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 22. Numata T. 90. Oh Se-Hun 23. Shirasaki R. 7. Soma Y.	16. Iesaka Y. 33. Kamiya Yuta 77. Kawanami G. (G) 27. Kimura T. 15. Kudo K. 99. Lucao 28. Matsumoto M. 98. Werik Popo 88. Yanagi T.
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Kiyama T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duke M. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
49', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
58', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
58', Masuyama A. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
60', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
60', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
78', Esaka A. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
82', Nishimura T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
90+3', Hayashi K. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 0, Shoji G. ⚽, Oh Se-Hun (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2.

Machida Zelvia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Okayama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machida Zelvia is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Mae H. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (International duty) Tatsuta Y. (Injury)

There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Okamura D. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
23.09.25	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.25	Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
12.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia	5:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TTTLW
- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
23.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama	4:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:0 ✺
23.08.25	Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
25.05.25	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	2:2
Japan J2 League
05.08.23	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	1:3
07.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
04.09.22	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	2:0
13.03.22	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	3:1
14.08.21	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
05.05.21	Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia	1:2

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