Match Info

PORTUGAL: LEAGUE CUP - ROUND 1

Date: 27 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Farense		Tondela

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.9	Watch
	2	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.94	3.34	4.3
	1.85	3.25	3.9
	1.91	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.65)	3.32 ↑ (3.3)	3.97 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
48.3%

Draw
28.1%

Tondela
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26.9%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

27.9%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Farense's form might have worsened.

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Farense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Farense - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: Farense will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Felipe (G) 2. Delgado F. 6. Muscat Z. 3. Rossi I. 12. Talys 5. Caseres F. 80. Goncalves V. 77. Matias M. (C) 8. Barbosa R. 20. Ponde C. 91. Ze Luis	41. Silva R. (G) 2. Bebeto 44. Lucas Mezenga 34. Alves R. (C) 4. Jota Goncalves 26. Lucas Barros 6. Ceitil A. 15. Sithole S. 8. Tavares H. 9. dos Anjos D. 55. Farias L.
Substitutes
7. Balde E. 62. Belloumi M. 30. Candeias A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 9. Duarte B. 4. Jorge A. 27. Mattheus 28. Pastor 50. Seruca A.	13. Ba A. 97. Cicero 18. Cuba 33. Franca G. 22. Leo Navacchio (G) 21. Maranhao 17. Roberto 16. Rocha L. 19. Tiago Almeida
Coaches
Mota J.	Marreco T.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Tondela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Farense is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Farense won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
23.09.23	Moreirense - Farense	1:0 ✺
16.09.23	Farense - Braga	3:1 ✺
02.09.23	Famalicão - Farense	1:0 ✺
26.08.23	Farense - Chaves	5:0 ✺
20.08.23	Porto - Farense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWLWL
- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.23	Tondela - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
09.09.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
01.09.23	Tondela - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
26.08.23	Paços de Ferreira - Tondela	5:1 ✺
19.08.23	Tondela - Académico de Viseu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.05.23	Farense - Tondela	3:1
22.01.23	Tondela - Farense	1:0
Liga Portugal
15.05.21	Farense - Tondela	1:0
30.01.21	Tondela - Farense	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
19.04.15	Farense - Tondela	1:2
23.11.14	Tondela - Farense	1:0
23.02.14	Tondela - Farense	0:0

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