Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 29 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Vieira B. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 4
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Montenegro	Sportklub 4
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2


	Farense		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	5	3.4	1.75	Watch
	4.8	3.4	1.75
	5	3.5	1.75
	4.2	3.55	1.88
	5.03	3.49	1.77	Watch
	4.6	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.86	3.52	1.78	Watch
	5	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (4.36)	3.47 ↓ (3.54)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
19.6%

Draw
27.2%

Vitoria Guimarães
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

26.5%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

28.8%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	15%	75%

Farense - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Guimarães will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 56% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (G) 44. Lucas Africo 29. Claudio Falcao 3. Moreno M. 28. Pastor 93. Menino M. 6. Neto 31. Derick Poloni 7. Balde E. 14. Poveda D. 77. Matias M. (C)	14. Varela B. (C) 22. Costa A. 15. Rivas Viondi O. 3. Villanueva M. 13. Mendes J. 17. Mendes J. 6. Manu 10. Tiago Silva 11. Kaio Cesar 71. Gustavo 77. Santos N.
Substitutes
23. Canizares L. (G) 71. Jaiminho 4. Jorge A. 79. Merghem M. 19. Millan A. 2. Paulo Victor 34. Raul Silva 21. Soares F. 9. Tomane	18. Arcanjo T. 79. Bica 5. Cruz M. 44. Fernandes J. 8. Handel T. 91. Jose Ribeiro (G) 2. Miguel Maga 20. Samu 28. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Marreco T.	Sousa D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
31', Rivas Viondi O. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Claudio Falcao ⚽, Matias M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lucas Africo ↓, Jorge A. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Gustavo ⚽, Costa A. (A),
59', Menino M. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
59', Poveda D. ↓, Tomane ↑,
64', Mendes J. 🟨,
70', Manu ↓, Handel T. ↑,
70', Mendes J. ↓, Samu ↑,
72', Balde E. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
79', Kaio Cesar 🟨,
82', Jorge A. 🟨,
83', Mendes J. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
83', Santos N. ↓, Miguel Maga ↑,
86', Jorge A. ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Samu ⚽, Costa A. (A),
90+3', Gustavo ↓, Bica ↑,
90+8', 2 - 2, Neto ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).

Farense is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Guimarães is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guimarães could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Guimarães is a favorite.

There will not play in Farense: Lucas Africo (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Guimarães: Borevkovic T. (Injury) Gaspar B. (Muscle Injury) Oliveira N. (Injury) Ramirez J. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Farense won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:7 (average 1.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
21.12.24	Famalicão - Farense	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Boavista - Farense	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Arouca - Farense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WLTWW
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
23.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.12.24	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	St. Gallen - Vitoria Guimarães	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.12.24	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.04.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Farense	1:1
02.12.23	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
06.05.21	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2
17.02.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Farense	2:2

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