Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 23

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7


	Arouca		Farense

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.5
	1.9	3.55	4.59
	1.86	3.47	4.43	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4	Watch
	1.89	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.87)	3.45 ↑ (3.43)	4.35 ↑ (4.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
51%

Draw
27.3%

Farense
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

27.5%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

26.4%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Arouca - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: Arouca will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valido J. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 73. Lamba C. 3. Fontan J. 26. Weverson 5. Simao D. (C) 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 22. Gozalbez P. 2. Sylla M. 39. Araujo H.	33. Velho R. (C) 3. Moreno M. 29. Claudio Falcao 4. Jorge A. 28. Pastor 21. Soares F. 93. Menino M. 31. Derick Poloni 10. Njie Y. 9. Tomane 20. Rony Lopes
Substitutes
10. Jason 31. Loum M. 24. Mansilla B. 23. Nandin D. 89. Pedro Santos 13. Popovic B. 11. Puche 30. Vinarcik J. (G) 50. Yalcin G.	11. Bermejo A. 19. Costa R. 80. Justo S. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 44. Lucas Africo 77. Matias M. 2. Paulo Victor 14. Poveda D. 5. Ribeiro T.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Marreco T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Jorge A. 🟨,
42', Derick Poloni 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Derick Poloni ⚽, Jorge A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gozalbez P. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
46', Araujo H. ↓, Jason ↑,
53', Simao D. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Trezza A. ⚽,
67', 2 - 1, Nandin D. ⚽, Lamba C. (A),
72', Jorge A. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
72', Derick Poloni ↓, Lucas Africo ↑,
72', Soares F. ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
79', Sylla M. ↓, Loum M. ↑,
82', Fukui T. 🟨,
82', Simao D. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
86', Paulo Victor 🟨,
88', Menino M. ↓, Matias M. ↑,
88', Moreno M. ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Tomane ⚽,
90+7', Fukui T. ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 2.

Arouca is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Farense has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Arouca could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arouca is a favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Mantl N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Farense: Ze Carlos (Red Card)

There are questionable in Arouca: Galovic N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Farense: Neto (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:11 (average 1.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:6 (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2 ✺
10.02.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
24.01.25	Arouca - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.2 TTWWT
- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
16.02.25	Farense - Porto	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Farense - Nacional	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Farense - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
19.01.25	Moreirense - Farense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Arouca - Farense	1:2
Liga Portugal
22.09.24	Farense - Arouca	0:1
30.03.24	Arouca - Farense	2:1
06.11.23	Farense - Arouca	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
05.05.19	Farense - Arouca	2:2
06.01.19	Arouca - Farense	3:3
Taça de Portugal
21.10.18	Farense - Arouca	1:3

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