Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Kybunpark (St. Gallen)

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

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	St. Gallen		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.2	3.3	2.05
	3.4	3.5	2.1
	3.45	3.55	2.13
	3.31	3.52	2.09	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.05
	3.48	3.58	2.13
	3.3	3.5	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.6)	3.49 ↑ (3.3)	2.09 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Gallen
28.2%

Draw
26.9%

Vitoria Guimarães
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.9%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

28%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Gallen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Gallen's form might have worsened.

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitoria Guimarães's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Gallen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.8%	20.7%	65.5%

St. Gallen - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. St. Gallen will win (votes: 4 - 13.8%). Guimarães will win (votes: 19 - 65.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 48.2% – 82.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 28. Vandermersch H. 15. Diaby A. 20. Vallci A. 36. Okoroji C. 16. Gortler L. (C) 64. Stevanovic M. 63. Konietzke C. 7. Witzig C. 77. Csoboth K. 10. Akolo C.	14. Varela B. (C) 22. Costa A. 15. Rivas Viondi O. 3. Villanueva M. 13. Mendes J. 10. Tiago Silva 6. Manu 17. Mendes J. 71. Gustavo 7. Oliveira N. 77. Santos N.
Substitutes
5. Ambrosius S. 11. Cisse M. 35. Dumrath B. (G) 22. Faber K. 23. Fazliji B. 18. Mambimbi F. 14. Noah Yannick 8. Quintilla J. 30. Ruiz V. 4. Stanic J. 24. Toma B. 25. Watkowiak L. (G)	18. Arcanjo T. 79. Bica 27. Charles Silva (G) 86. Dieu M. 44. Fernandes J. 91. Jose Ribeiro (G) 11. Kaio Cesar 2. Miguel Maga 4. Ribeiro T. 20. Samu 28. Ze Carlos
Coaches
Maassen E.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Mendes J. ⚽, Santos N. (A),
43', Akolo C. 🟨,
45', Vallci A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Konietzke C. ↓, Toma B. ↑,
50', Costa A. 🟨,
57', Diaby A. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Gustavo ⚽, Santos N. (A),
61', Stevanovic M. 🟨,
61', Akolo C. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
61', Stevanovic M. ↓, Ruiz V. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Csoboth K. ⚽, Vandermersch H. (A),
72', Mendes J. ↓, Samu ↑,
72', Gustavo ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
75', Oliveira N. ↓, Bica ↑,
78', Witzig C. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Costa A. ⚽, Kaio Cesar (A),
86', Manu 🟨,
87', Santos N. 🟨,
90', Santos N. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
90', Tiago Silva ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
90+2', Mendes J. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 4, Samu ⚽,
90+4', Ati Zigi L. 🟨,

Preview

St. Gallen is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Guimarães is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

St. Gallen could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Guimarães will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in St. Gallen: Karlen G. (Knee Injury) Milosevic J. (Injury) Nuhu M. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Gallen
Swiss Super League
08.12.24	St. Gallen - Basel	1:1 ✺
Swiss Cup
05.12.24	Bellinzona - St. Gallen	1:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.12.24	Young Boys - St. Gallen	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	St. Gallen - Bačka Topola	2:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
24.11.24	St. Gallen - Yverdon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLTT
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
07.12.24	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
02.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Astana - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Leiria	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.24	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWTWL

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