Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Farense		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3	Watch
	2.45	3	2.95
	2.55	3	3	Watch
	2.52	3.13	3.19
	2.48	3.06	3.12	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.47	3.16	3.02	Watch
	2.55	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (3.06)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	3.02 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
38%

Draw
30.7%

Gil Vicente
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

30.4%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Farense's performance.

Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gil Vicente might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gil Vicente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Farense - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (G) 44. Lucas Africo 34. Raul Silva 3. Moreno M. 28. Pastor 93. Menino M. 6. Neto 2. Paulo Victor 77. Matias M. (C) 14. Poveda D. 7. Balde E.	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos 23. Josue Sa 26. Ruben (C) 57. Cruz S. 19. Garcia S. 24. Gbane M. 10. Fujimoto K. 77. Mboula J. 9. Aguirre J. 71. Correia F.
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 23. Canizares L. (G) 31. Derick Poloni 71. Jaiminho 4. Jorge A. 79. Merghem M. 50. Seruca A. 21. Soares F. 9. Tomane	99. Araujo B. (G) 39. Buatu J. 5. Caseres F. 6. Castillo J. 20. Caue 4. Elimbi M. G. 18. Joao Teixeira 88. Kazu 90. Pablo
Coaches
Marreco T.	Pinheiro B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Josue Sa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 1, Lucas Africo (Own goal),
50', Raul Silva 🟨,
57', Cruz S. ↓, Kazu ↑,
60', Raul Silva ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
60', Poveda D. ↓, Tomane ↑,
61', Fujimoto K. ↓, Caseres F. ↑,
61', Josue Sa ↓, Elimbi M. G. ↑,
69', Neto 🟨,
76', Menino M. ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
77', Mboula J. ↓, Pablo ↑,
77', Aguirre J. ↓, Caue ↑,
84', Neto ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
84', Balde E. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
90+10', Soares F. 🟨,
90+11', Garcia S. 🟨,
90+13', Caue 🟥,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Farense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Farense: Claudio Falcao (Red Card) Tomane (Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Sithole S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Farense: Soares F. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Farense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
08.12.24	Boavista - Farense	1:1 ✺
29.11.24	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Arouca - Farense	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.24	Casa Pia - Farense	1:1 ✺
02.11.24	Farense - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWWTL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
07.12.24	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
02.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
24.11.24	Vila Real - Gil Vicente	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.24	Moreirense - Gil Vicente	3:2 ✺
02.11.24	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
12.05.24	Gil Vicente - Farense	2:0
06.01.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	1:0
01.05.21	Gil Vicente - Farense	0:0
10.01.21	Farense - Gil Vicente	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
14.05.16	Gil Vicente - Farense	2:3
03.01.16	Farense - Gil Vicente	0:2

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