Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 19 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Xhaja J. (Alb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Belgium	Play Sports 1, VOOsport World 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go
Czech-republic	Sport 1, Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 3
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 3, Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	FOX Sports Premium
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 4
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 5
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Vitoria Guimarães		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.2
	3.2	3.1	2.15
	3.25	3.2	2.25
	3.59	3.15	2.25
	3.45	3.18	2.17	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.15
	3.65	3.06	2.3
	3.25	3.2	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.01)	3.17 ↓ (3.3)	2.22 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
28%

Draw
29.6%

Fiorentina
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

28.8%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

30.3%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7%	69.8%	23.3%

Vitoria Guimarães - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 7.3%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 10 - 24.4%). It will Tie (votes: 28 - 68.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 54.1% – 82.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Varela B. (C) 22. Costa A. 44. Fernandes J. 15. Rivas Viondi O. 13. Mendes J. 10. Tiago Silva 6. Manu 17. Mendes J. 11. Kaio Cesar 71. Gustavo 77. Santos N.	1. Terracciano P. (G) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 28. Martinez Quarta L. (C) 65. Parisi F. 11. Ikone J. 8. Mandragora R. 24. Richardson A. 9. Beltran L. 99. Kouame C. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 79. Bica 27. Charles Silva (G) 86. Dieu M. 8. Handel T. 91. Jose Ribeiro (G) 2. Miguel Maga 4. Ribeiro T. 20. Samu 92. Sousa D. 3. Villanueva M. 28. Ze Carlos	29. Adli Y. 63. Caprini M. 23. Colpani A. 43. de Gea D. (G) 21. Gosens R. 64. Harder J. 33. Kayode M. 20. Kean M. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 22. Moreno M. 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L.
Coaches
Borges R.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Gustavo ⚽, Kaio Cesar (A),
42', Gustavo 🟨,
45+1', Tiago Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Richardson A. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
46', Comuzzo P. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
50', Manu 🟨,
57', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
57', Ikone J. ↓, Colpani A. ↑,
66', Kouame C. 🟨,
67', Mendes J. ↓, Samu ↑,
75', Borges R. 🟨,
75', Parisi F. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
80', Tiago Silva ↓, Handel T. ↑,
80', Santos N. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Mandragora R. ⚽,
89', Palladino R. 🟨,
90+3', Kaio Cesar ↓, Bica ↑,
90+5', Varela B. 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Guimarães could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Guimarães have a series of guest games.

Recently Fiorentina have a series of home games.

Fiorentina will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Borevkovic T. (Injury) Gaspar B. (Muscle Injury) Ramirez J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Pongracic M. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
16.12.24	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	St. Gallen - Vitoria Guimarães	1:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.12.24	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
02.12.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Astana - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLWT
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
15.12.24	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	Fiorentina - LASK Linz	7:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.12.24	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.12.24	Fiorentina - Empoli	2:3 penalties ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Fiorentina - Paphos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWLW

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