Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Ulker Stadium Şükrü Saracoğlu (Istanbul)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belarus	Okko Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 1, Pickx+ Sports 1, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 1, Silk Sport 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2, COSMOTE Sport 4, Cosmote Sport 4K, MEGA
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland, SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, Prime Video Sportsbar IT
Kazakhstan	Qazaqstan TV
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, RTK 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Football, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Sport 24


	Fenerbahçe		Benfica

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.4
	2.55	3.4	2.55
	2.85	3.6	2.45
	2.88	3.51	2.47
	2.5	3.5	2.5
	2.89	3.46	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.42)	3.48 ↓ (3.59)	2.47 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
34.4%

Draw
27.3%

Benfica
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

26.6%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.5%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fenerbahçe's form might have worsened.

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.6%	23.9%	39.4%

Fenerbahçe - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 68 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 24 - 35.3%). Benfica will win (votes: 27 - 39.7%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 28.1% – 51.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 8 - 21.6%). Benfica (votes: 16 - 43.2%). Tie (votes: 13 - 35.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Benfica (1.72) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Benfica (1.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 44 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 9 - 20.5%). Benfica (votes: 22 - 50%). Tie (votes: 13 - 29.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Egribayat I. (G) 18. Muldur M. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 27. Semedo N. 34. Amrabat S. 7. Fred 33. Brown A. 53. Szymanski S. 10. Duran J. 19. En Nesyri Y.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 61. Florentino 8. Aursnes F. 14. Pavlidis V. 7. Akturkoglu K.
Substitutes
95. Akcicek Y. 70. Aydin O. 14. Demir Y. E. 6. Djiku A. 28. Elmaz B. 17. Kahveci I. C. 40. Livakovic D. (G) 22. Mercan L. 4. Soyuncu C. 94. Talisca 20. Under C. 5. Yuksek I.	39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 47. Gouveia T. 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 71. Santos L. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Lage B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Barrenechea E. 🟨,
27', Duran J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Rios R. 🟨,
64', Barrenechea E. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
67', Duran J. ↓, Talisca ↑,
69', Florentino 🟨,
71', Florentino 🟨,
71', Lage B. 🟨,
77', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
77', Pavlidis V. ↓, Gouveia T. ↑,
79', Muldur M. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
86', Fred ↓, Kahveci I. C. ↑,
90+2', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
90+3', Silva A. 🟨,
90+3', Kahveci I. C. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, Fenerbahçe has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Benfica is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Rodrigo Becao (Knee Injury) Yandas M. (Knock)

There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Diego Carlos (Inactive) Tosun C. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Rios R. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
16.08.25	Göztepe - Fenerbahçe	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Fenerbahçe - Feyenoord	5:2 ✺
06.08.25	Feyenoord - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.25	Fenerbahçe - Lazio	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLWL
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
16.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Benfica - Nice	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Nice - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Super Cup
31.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.25	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:2
UEFA Champions League
14.08.18	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	1:1
07.08.18	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	1:0
UEFA Europa League
02.05.13	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	3:1
25.04.13	Fenerbahçe - Benfica	1:0

Upcoming Matches