Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 30

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Selekt, Sport 2
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV1, Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
Usa	Fubo Latino
World	Onefootball


	Sporting Lisbon		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.6	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3.1
	1.98	3.45	3.55	Watch
	2.08	3.59	3.77
	2.04	3.67	3.51	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.5
	2.05	3.69	3.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.07)	3.57 ↓ (3.77)	3.53 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
46.7%

Draw
26.5%

Benfica
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

25.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

24.6%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Sporting Lisbon - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Benfica will win (votes: 4 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 32%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sporting (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 72. Quaresma E. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 8. Pote 97. Suarez L.	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 20. Rios R. 25. Prestianni G. 18. Barreiro L. 21. Schjelderup A. 9. Ivanovic F.
Substitutes
70. Blopa S. 23. Braganca D. 6. Debast Z. 14. Kochorashvili G. 91. Mangas R. 90. Nel R. 7. Quenda G. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	6. Bah A. 5. Barrenechea E. 15. Lopes Cabral S. 11. Lukebakio D. 14. Pavlidis V. 27. Rafa Silva 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G) 10. Sudakov G.
Coaches
Borges R.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Suarez L. (Penalty Awarded),
27', 0 - 1, Schjelderup A. (Penalty Awarded),
36', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Silva R. 🟨,
60', Diomande O. ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
61', Quaresma E. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
68', Pote ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Morita H. ⚽, Debast Z. (A),
75', Trubin A. 🟨,
78', Schjelderup A. ↓, Rafa Silva ↑,
78', Ivanovic F. ↓, Pavlidis V. ↑,
78', Araujo T. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
78', Prestianni G. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
88', Morita H. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
88', Catamo G. ↓, Nel R. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Rafa Silva ⚽, Barreiro L. (A),
90+5', Barreiro L. ↓, Barrenechea E. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sporting will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sporting: Fresneda I. (Muscle Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Luis Guilherme (Ankle Injury) Santos N. (Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Inactive) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Rego J. (Inactive) Rios R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:33. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon	0:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
11.04.26	Estrela da Amadora - Sporting Lisbon	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	4:2 ✺
22.03.26	Alverca - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWLWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
12.04.26	Benfica - Nacional	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Arouca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
Portuguese Super Cup
31.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	0:1
Taça de Portugal
25.05.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:3 ET
Liga Portugal
10.05.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
11.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 penalties
Liga Portugal
29.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:0
06.04.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	2:1

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