Match Info

Super Lig - Round 23

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Kol Y. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fenerbahçe		Kasımpaşa

	1	X	2
	1.22	6	10	Watch
	1.25	6.01	9	Watch
	1.26	6.08	10.36
	1.3	5.77	9.27
	1.3	5	8.5
	1.31	6.06	9.8	Watch
	1.23	6	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.3)	5.85 ↑ (5.41)	9.56 ↑ (8.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
74.1%

Draw
16.1%

Kasımpaşa
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.1%

17.3%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Kasımpaşa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fenerbahçe (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Fenerbahçe (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Kasımpaşa (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.64% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 14 - 87.5%). Kasımpaşa (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 4. Soyuncu C. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 22. Mercan L. 6. Guendouzi M. 5. Yuksek I. 45. Nene D. 21. Asensio M. 20. Musaba A. 94. Talisca	1. Gianniotis A. (G) 22. Corekci K. 4. Arous A. 20. Opoku N. 21. Frimpong G. 16. Baldursson A. F. 34. Diabate F. 71. Kahveci I. C. 12. Ben Ouanes M. (C) 19. Benedyczak A. 23. Tosun C.
Substitutes
9. Akturkoglu K. 70. Aydin O. 3. Brown A. 26. Cherif S. 14. Demir Y. E. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 17. Kante N. 18. Muldur M. 67. Uregen K.	18. Allevinah J. 29. Aydin T. 9. Barasi Y. 8. Cafu 77. Gueye P. 6. Gultekin B. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 11. Kol A. 33. Tasdemir E. 25. Yanar A. (G)
Coaches
Tedesco D.	Belozoglu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Soyuncu C. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
38', Diabate F. 🟨,
40', Oosterwolde J. ↓, Kante N. ↑,
41', Baldursson A. F. 🟨,
42', Frimpong G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Musaba A. ↓, Muldur M. ↑,
46', Benedyczak A. ↓, Tasdemir E. ↑,
68', Tasdemir E. ↓, Cafu ↑,
70', Tosun C. 🟨,
76', Yuksek I. ↓, Fred ↑,
76', Mercan L. ↓, Cherif S. ↑,
76', Tosun C. ↓, Gueye P. ↑,
80', Kante N. 🟨,
82', Ben Ouanes M. 🟨,
85', Arous A. ↓, Aydin T. ↑,
85', Diabate F. ↓, Allevinah J. ↑,
86', Cafu 🟨,
90+3', Ben Ouanes M. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Asensio M. ⚽, Nene D. (A),
90+6', Asensio M. 🟨,
90+8', Guendouzi M. 🟨,
90+11', 1 - 1, Allevinah J. ⚽, Baldursson A. F. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 4.

Fenerbahçe is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kasımpaşa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Injury)

There will not play in Kasımpaşa: Hajradinovic H. (Knee Injury) Winck C. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Skriniar M. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 17 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 55:19. (average 2.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:13. (average 2.9:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
8	Kasimpasa	7	2	4	1	8:8	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Nottingham Forest	0:3 ✺
Turkish Super League
14.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
09.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Gençlerbirliği	3:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
02.02.26	Kocaelispor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWW
- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
16.02.26	Kasımpaşa - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Gaziantep - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Kasımpaşa - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Trabzonspor - Kasımpaşa	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Kasımpaşa - Antalyaspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
21.09.25	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	1:1
16.02.25	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	3:1
Turkish Cup
09.01.25	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	0:3
Turkish Super League
15.09.24	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	0:2
24.02.24	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	2:1
08.10.23	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	0:2
29.01.23	Fenerbahçe - Kasımpaşa	5:1

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