Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 10 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, Q League Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	Play Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	TNT
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, OneSoccer
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Cyprus	Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Uno
Kosovo	RTK 1
Malta	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	TNT Sports
Mongolia	Premier Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Norway	TV2 Play
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Prime
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 6, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	Fenerbahçe		Roma

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.70	1.90
	3.70	3.75	1.90
	3.90	3.50	1.97
	4.07	3.80	1.98
	3.7	3.67	2.05
	4.05	3.70	1.94
	3.91	3.80	1.95
	3.90	3.85	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (2.54)	3.72 ↑ (3.39)	1.96 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
24.8%

Draw
25.9%

Roma
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.2%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fenerbahçe's form might have worsened.

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.1%	12.9%	71%

Fenerbahçe - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: 61 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 10 - 16.4%). Roma will win (votes: 43 - 70.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 13.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 59.1% – 81.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Roma (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fenerbahçe (2.46) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.77) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.60) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roma will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Roma (votes: 11 - 64.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 18. Muldur M. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 91. Kante N. 5. Yuksek I. 28. Elmaz B. 11. Greenwood M. 19. Muriqi V. 7. Akturkoglu K.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 2. Rensch D. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 43. Wesley Franca 21. Dybala P. 18. Soule M. 14. Malen D.
Substitutes
70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 34. Gunok M. (G) 17. Kahveci I. 9. Lukaku R. 22. Mercan L. 77. Mimovic O. 45. Nene D. 21. Peprah K. 27. Semedo N.	26. Balerdi L. 9. Castro S. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 15. De Roon M. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 3. Koulierakis K. 77. Lulli E. 20. Molina N. 86. Mora R. 61. Pisilli N.
Coaches
Kartal I.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Cristante B. ⚽, Malen D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Rensch D. 🟨,
48', 1 - 1, Brown A. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
51', Brown A. 🟨,
53', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
62', Elmaz B. ↓, Mercan L. ↑,
68', (Penalty overturned),
69', Akturkoglu K. 🟨,
71', Muldur M. 🟨,
72', Muriqi V. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
72', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,
74', Rensch D. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
74', Soule M. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
74', Mancini G. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
84', Yuksek I. 🟨,
86', Cristante B. 🟨,
87', Malen D. ↓, De Roon M. ↑,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Roma might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Asensio M. (Muscle Injury) Diouf A. (Off the roster) Fall A. (Off the roster) Guendouzi M. (Red Card) Oosterwolde J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodrigo Becao (Off the roster) Yandas M. (Off the roster)

There will not play in Roma: Bah M. (Knee Injury) Pellegrini Lo. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fenerbahçe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

AS Roma: 1.49% Fenerbahce: 0.55%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
20	Fenerbahce	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
05.09.26	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.08.26	Lyon - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Konyaspor	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWT
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
05.09.26	Roma - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Roma	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Roma	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.08.14	Roma - Fenerbahçe	3:3

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