Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga2 - Round 39

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Referee: Cid Camacho G. (Esp)


	Ferrol		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	4	Watch
	2.05	2.95	3.7
	2.15	3	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.15	4.79
	2.2	3.01	4.04
	2.12	3.13	3.85	Watch
	2.09	2.95	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.65)	3.01 ↓ (3.51)	4.02 ↓ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
45.1%

Draw
31.4%

Alcorcón
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

26.8%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

25.7%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferrol's form might have worsened.

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alcorcón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferrol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcorcón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Ferrol - Alcorcón Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferrol will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Alcorcón will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferrol: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cantero A. (G) 24. Cubero S. 4. Garcia H. J. 15. Castro D. 18. Martinez B. 8. Lopez A. 6. Bernal J. 23. Serrano N. 17. Chuca 22. Losada I. 20. Gimenez A.	1. Ruiz J. (G) 20. Lopez I. 2. Castro J. 23. Chema 19. Quintilla X. 17. Garcia V. 16. Perez J. 5. Mosquera P. 8. Rodriganez J. 33. Sanca M. 9. Borrego C.
Substitutes
12. Alex Martin 5. Clemente E. 2. Delmas J. 13. Emilio (G) 1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 9. Justo M. 16. Manzanara F. 21. Moi 11. Nacho 3. Oscar Pinchi 7. Pena H. 10. Sene J.	26. Addai E. 13. Anacker L. (G) 22. Artola J. 6. Babin J. 24. Bilbao I. 18. Eteki Y. 14. Fede 10. Juanma Bravo 15. Lara J. 3. Morillas D. 21. Obieta K. 11. Sousa D.
Coaches
Parralo C.	Nafti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Chema 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Castro D. ↓, Clemente E. ↑,
54', Sanca M. ↓, Addai E. ↑,
59', Chuca ↓, Pena H. ↑,
59', Gimenez A. ↓, Justo M. ↑,
59', Lopez A. ↓, Sene J. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Sene J. ⚽,
77', Mosquera P. ↓, Fede ↑,
78', Borrego C. ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Perez J. ⚽,
86', 2 - 1, Serrano N. ⚽,
87', Losada I. ↓, Manzanara F. ↑,
89', Castro J. ↓, Obieta K. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Ferrol is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Alcorcón is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Ferrol is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ferrol won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Ferrol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish LaLiga2
05.05.24	Tenerife - Ferrol	2:0 ✺
29.04.24	Ferrol - Mirandés	0:2 ✺
20.04.24	Villarreal B - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Ferrol - Huesca	2:1 ✺
05.04.24	Amorebieta - Ferrol	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish LaLiga2
04.05.24	Cartagena - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
28.04.24	Alcorcón - Eldense	0:0 ✺
21.04.24	Eibar - Alcorcón	2:0 ✺
15.04.24	Alcorcón - Villarreal B	1:0 ✺
08.04.24	Racing Santander - Alcorcón	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.09.23	Alcorcón - Ferrol	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.03.23	Alcorcón - Ferrol	0:1
17.12.22	Ferrol - Alcorcón	1:2

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