Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 10

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2.1	2.95	3.6
	2.02	3.1	3.95
	2.11	3.2	4.13
	2.01	3.11	4.06	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4.4
	2.04	3.23	3.72	Watch
	2.02	3.1	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.86)	3.13 ↓ (3.33)	3.95 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
46.2%

Draw
30%

Botafogo SP
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

28%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

26.9%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	85.7%	0%

Ferroviária - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 44. Maycon 14. Eric Melo 35. Netinho 5. Ricardinho 37. Thiago Lopes 20. Albano 77. Juninho 92. Carlao	1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jefferson Nem 3. Ericson 4. Rafael Milhorim 6. Risso G. 7. Jonathan Cafu 5. Gabriel Bispo 10. Maciel L. (C) 11. Matheus Regis 8. Dramisino A. 9. Alexandre Jesus
Substitutes
8. Alencar 10. Cassio Gabriel 66. Edson Lucas 83. Erik Nascimento 95. Filipe Costa (G) 70. Igor Bolt 7. Kevin 99. Quirino 29. Tarik 39. Thayllon 11. Vitor Barreto 57. Wesley Pomba	18. Abdulai S. 14. Carlao 19. Carrillo R. 15. Edson 12. Joao Carlos (G) 20. Pablo Thomaz 16. Rafael Castro 17. Robinho 21. Tortello 13. Wallison 22. Willian Lins
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Matheus Regis 🟨,
10', Victor Souza 🟨,
11', 1 - 0, Netinho (Pen),
33', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
36', Gabriel Bispo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gabriel Bispo ↓, Abdulai S. ↑,
46', Matheus Regis ↓, Robinho ↑,
48', Juninho 🟨,
63', Netinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
63', Dramisino A. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
63', Albano ↓, Thayllon ↑,
79', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
80', Juninho ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
80', Carlao ↓, Quirino ↑,
80', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Willian Lins ↑,
80', Jefferson Nem ↓, Wallison ↑,
85', Tarik 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Maciel L. ⚽, Carrillo R. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Botafogo SP may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ferroviária is the team to beat.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Gustavo Medina (Inactive) Tarik (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Alisson Cassiano (Injury) Jean Victor (Injury) Matheus Barbosa (Injury) Matheus Costa (Injury) Wesley Dias (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Thayllon (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Gustavo Bochecha (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.25	Goiás - Ferroviária	2:0 ✺
15.05.25	Ferroviária - Avaí	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
02.05.25	Ferroviária - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWL
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
26.05.25	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Botafogo SP	3:0 ✺
12.05.25	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	0:3 ✺
04.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo SP	1:4 ✺
28.04.25	Botafogo SP - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.23	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:2
01.02.22	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:1
08.03.21	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	5:0
01.03.20	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:0
28.01.19	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:2
29.01.18	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:2
29.03.17	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	0:0

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