Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Servus TV, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7
Belgium	RTBF Tipik
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 6, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 1
Germany	Servus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
Indonesia	beIN Sports 1
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport 4K
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	SportsMax App Caribbean, SportsMax+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 3
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Sport 1, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 7
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+, VIX App


	Fiorentina		Celje

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	7.5
	1.34	5	7
	1.37	4.95	8.4	Watch
	1.38	5.22	7.89
	1.4	4.9	7.62	Watch
	1.37	5.29	8.3
	1.37	4.95	8.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.32)	5.04 ↓ (5.31)	7.87 ↓ (9.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
69.2%

Draw
18.8%

Celje
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.1%

17.9%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.2%

17.4%

9.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.1%	6.9%	0%

Fiorentina - Celje Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 90. Folorunsho M. 8. Mandragora R. 32. Cataldi D. 44. Fagioli N. 65. Parisi F. 20. Kean M. 10. Gudmundsson A.	41. Silva R. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 3. Vuklisevic D. 81. Nemanic K. 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 35. Delaurier-Chaubet L. 19. Zabukovnik M. 16. Kvesic M. 11. Seslar S. 7. Matko A. 88. Svetlin T.
Substitutes
29. Adli Y. 61. Baroncelli L. 9. Beltran L. 63. Caprini M. 21. Gosens R. 64. Harder J. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 24. Richardson A. 67. Romani L. 1. Terracciano P. (G)	44. Bejger L. 4. Dulca M. 30. Edmilson Santos 17. Gobec S. 20. Iosifov N. 12. Kolar L. (G) 10. Kouter N. 5. Lhernault C. 22. Rozman M. (G) 38. Zuzek Z.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Riera A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Mandragora R. ⚽, Pongracic M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 1 - 1, Matko A. ⚽, Zabukovnik M. (A),
55', Folorunsho M. 🟨,
61', Mandragora R. 🟨,
65', 1 - 2, Nemanic K. ⚽, Seslar S. (A),
67', 2 - 2, Kean M. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),
80', Fagioli N. ↓, Richardson A. ↑,
80', Parisi F. ↓, Gosens R. ↑,
90', Matko A. ↓, Edmilson Santos ↑,
90', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
90', Mandragora R. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
90+5', Vuklisevic D. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match Fiorentina is certain favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Colpani A. (Foot Injury) Dodo (Yellow Cards) Gosens R. (Knee Injury) Mari P. (Inactive) Moreno M. (Yellow Cards) Ndour C. (Inactive) Zaniolo N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Celje: Ajhmajer N. (Knee Injury) Kucys A. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Fiorentina to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
13.04.25	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.04.25	Celje - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 TWTWW
- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
13.04.25	Celje - Mura	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.04.25	Celje - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
06.04.25	NK Bravo - Celje	1:2 ✺
Slovenian Cup
02.04.25	Maribor - Celje	0:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
29.03.25	Domžale - Celje	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
10.04.25	Celje - Fiorentina	1:2

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