Match Info

Serie A - Round 7

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
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Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Sport 2
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Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
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Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
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Hungary	Match 4
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Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Milan		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	5	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.79	3.65	5.11
	1.70	3.56	5.16	Watch
	1.8	3.79	5.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.51)	3.63 ↓ (4.32)	5.07 ↓ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
54.7%

Draw
26.4%

Fiorentina
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

22%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

20.9%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Milan's form might have worsened.

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	6.5%	10.9%

Milan - Fiorentina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Milan (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Fiorentina (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (3.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Fiorentina (2.10) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (76 of 92 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.86% – 90.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 28 - 70%). Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 22.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 24. Athekame Z. 4. Ricci S. 14. Modric L. 19. Fofana Y. 33. Bartesaghi D. 56. Saelemaekers A. 10. Leao R.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
25. Balentien C. 5. De Winter K. 7. Gimenez S. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 42. Sala E. 1. Terracciano P. (G)	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 11. Sabiri A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Athekame Z. 🟨,
54', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Gosens R. ⚽,
57', Athekame Z. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
60', Fofana Y. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Pavlovic S. (A),
69', Gosens R. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
70', Fazzini J. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
74', Tomori F. 🟨,
77', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
85', Parisi F. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Leao R. (Pen),
87', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
88', Ranieri L. 🟨,
88', Mandragora R. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
90', Saelemaekers A. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
90+3', Leao R. ↓, Balentien C. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 2.

Milan is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of home games.

In this match, Milan is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Injury) Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Nkunku C. (Toe Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Pulisic C. (Thigh Injury) Saelemaekers A. (Thigh Injury)

We predict that Milan will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Udinese - Milan	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWWWW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
05.10.25	Fiorentina - Roma	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Fiorentina - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Pisa - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
30.03.24	Fiorentina - Milan	1:2
25.11.23	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0
04.03.23	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
13.11.22	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1
01.05.22	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0

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