Match Info

Serie A - Round 7

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Angola	19:45	Z Sports 2
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	05:45	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	15:45	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	14:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	15:45	Disney+
China	02:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Sport 2
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	20:45	Match 4
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	21:45	Shasha
Macao	02:45	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	20:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	07:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV1
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	21:45	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	21:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	03:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	02:45	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	23:45	Futbol TV
Thailand	01:45	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	21:45	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+, Inter


	Milan		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	5	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.79	3.65	5.11
	1.70	3.56	5.16	Watch
	1.8	3.79	5.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.51)	3.63 ↓ (4.32)	5.07 ↓ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
54.7%

Draw
26.4%

Fiorentina
18.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.9%

22%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2%

20.9%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Milan's form might have worsened.

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	6.5%	10.9%

Milan - Fiorentina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Milan (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Fiorentina (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fiorentina (3.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Fiorentina (2.10) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Milan will win (76 of 92 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.86% – 90.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Milan will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 28 - 70%). Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 22.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (C) 23. Tomori F. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 24. Athekame Z. 4. Ricci S. 14. Modric L. 19. Fofana Y. 33. Bartesaghi D. 56. Saelemaekers A. 10. Leao R.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 18. Mari P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 44. Fagioli N. 21. Gosens R. 22. Fazzini J. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
25. Balentien C. 5. De Winter K. 7. Gimenez S. 27. Odogu D. 37. Pittarella M. (G) 42. Sala E. 1. Terracciano P. (G)	15. Comuzzo P. 9. Dzeko E. 29. Fortini N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 30. Martinelli T. (G) 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 11. Sabiri A. 7. Sohm S. 26. Viti M.
Coaches
Allegri M.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Athekame Z. 🟨,
54', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Gosens R. ⚽,
57', Athekame Z. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
60', Fofana Y. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Pavlovic S. (A),
69', Gosens R. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
70', Fazzini J. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
74', Tomori F. 🟨,
77', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
85', Parisi F. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Leao R. (Pen),
87', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
88', Ranieri L. 🟨,
88', Mandragora R. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
90', Saelemaekers A. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
90+3', Leao R. ↓, Balentien C. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 2.

Milan is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of home games.

In this match, Milan is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Injury) Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Nkunku C. (Toe Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Pulisic C. (Thigh Injury) Saelemaekers A. (Thigh Injury)

We predict that Milan will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Milan - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Udinese - Milan	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWWWW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
05.10.25	Fiorentina - Roma	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Fiorentina - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Pisa - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Fiorentina - Como	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
30.03.24	Fiorentina - Milan	1:2
25.11.23	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0
04.03.23	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1
13.11.22	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1
01.05.22	Milan - Fiorentina	1:0

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