Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 5, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport LaLiga
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 4
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	15:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	21:00	Sport 1
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 7
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	13:00	Claro Sports, Disney+
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 6
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 6
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 7
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1, Sport TV1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus
International	19:00	Disney+, VIX App


	Celje		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.9	1.7
	6	4.2	1.46
	4.65	3.95	1.72	Watch
	8	4.76	1.4
	4.92	3.95	1.68	Watch
	7	4.5	1.4
	4.78	3.97	1.7
	4.65	3.95	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.56 ↓ (7.02)	4.15 ↓ (4.83)	1.6 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
17.2%

Draw
23%

Fiorentina
59.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

13.5%

19.7%

66.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.2%

20.1%

68.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fiorentina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fiorentina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	12.5%	81.2%

Celje - Fiorentina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Fiorentina (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Celje (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Silva R. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 3. Vuklisevic D. 81. Nemanic K. 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 16. Kvesic M. 19. Zabukovnik M. 88. Svetlin T. 35. Delaurier-Chaubet L. 7. Matko A. 11. Seslar S.	43. de Gea D. (G) 5. Pongracic M. 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 22. Moreno M. 8. Mandragora R. 32. Cataldi D. 29. Adli Y. 90. Folorunsho M. 17. Zaniolo N. 9. Beltran L.
Substitutes
44. Bejger L. 4. Dulca M. 30. Edmilson Santos 17. Gobec S. 20. Iosifov N. 12. Kolar L. (G) 10. Kouter N. 5. Lhernault C. 38. Zuzek Z.	61. Baroncelli L. 63. Caprini M. 2. Dodo 44. Fagioli N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 1. Terracciano P. (G)
Coaches
Riera A.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Ranieri L. ⚽, Folorunsho M. (A),
35', Moreno M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Moreno M. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
49', Ranieri L. 🟨,
53', Zaniolo N. 🟨,
55', Vuklisevic D. 🟨,
62', 0 - 2, Mandragora R. (Pen),
63', Adli Y. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
63', Cataldi D. ↓, Richardson A. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Delaurier-Chaubet L. (Pen),
77', Folorunsho M. ↓, Dodo ↑,
83', Kvesic M. ↓, Iosifov N. ↑,
87', Dodo 🟨,
89', Zaniolo N. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
89', Delaurier-Chaubet L. ↓, Edmilson Santos ↑,
90+6', Parisi F. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Celje in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Fiorentina is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fiorentina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Celje have a series of guest games.

In this match Fiorentina is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Celje: Ajhmajer N. (Knee Injury) Kucys A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Colpani A. (Foot Injury) Gosens R. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
06.04.25	NK Bravo - Celje	1:2 ✺
Slovenian Cup
02.04.25	Maribor - Celje	0:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
29.03.25	Domžale - Celje	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Celje - Nafta	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.03.25	Lugano - Celje	5:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.4 WWWWW
- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0 ✺
16.03.25	Fiorentina - Juventus	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.03.25	Fiorentina - Panathinaikos	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
09.03.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TWWWL

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