Match Info

Serie A - Round 30

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Europe	Go3 Sport 4 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
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Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Discovery+, TV12, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Fiorentina		Inter Milan

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.33	1.62	Watch
	5.25	4.1	1.62
	4.95	4.15	1.65	Watch
	5.4	4.2	1.66
	5.32	4.24	1.65	Watch
	4.8	3.9	1.62
	5.45	4.28	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.13 ↑ (4.9)	4.17 ↑ (4.09)	1.64 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
18.7%

Draw
23%

Inter Milan
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

23.2%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

22.8%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.6%	14.5%	73.9%

Fiorentina - Inter Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 68 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 8 - 11.8%). Inter will win (votes: 51 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 13.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Inter: 64.7% – 85.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Fiorentina (2.05) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fiorentina (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Inter Milan will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Inter (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 44. Fagioli N. 65. Parisi F. 4. Brescianini M. 27. Ndour C. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.	1. Sommer Y. (G) 31. Bisseck Y. 25. Akanji M. 30. Carlos Augusto 2. Dumfries D. 23. Barella N. (C) 20. Calhanoglu H. 7. Zielinski P. 32. Dimarco F. 9. Thuram M. 94. Esposito F.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 17. Harrison J. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 91. Piccoli R. 3. Rugani D.	15. Acerbi F. 14. Bonny A. 36. Darmian M. 6. de Vrij S. 12. Di Gennaro R. (G) 17. Diouf A. 16. Frattesi D. 11. Luis Henrique 13. Martinez J. (G) 49. Maye Y. 47. Spinacce M. 8. Sucic P.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Kolarov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Esposito F. ⚽, Barella N. (A),
42', Dimarco F. 🟨,
44', Carlos Augusto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Carlos Augusto ↓, Acerbi F. ↑,
55', Brescianini M. 🟨,
60', Ndour C. 🟨,
62', Barella N. 🟨,
65', Kean M. 🟨,
68', Thuram M. ↓, Bonny A. ↑,
69', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
69', Parisi F. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Ndour C. ⚽,
83', Barella N. ↓, Sucic P. ↑,
86', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
86', Dumfries D. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
90+1', Fagioli N. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
90+1', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.

Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Inter has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Inter is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 22:40. (average 1.1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.4:1.9).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Inter: 45% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15:8	7	13
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.03.26	Cremonese - Fiorentina	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWTL
- Inter Milan
Italian Serie A
14.03.26	Inter Milan - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Milan - Inter Milan	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.03.26	Como - Inter Milan	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
28.02.26	Inter Milan - Genoa	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Inter Milan - Bodø Glimt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
29.10.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	3:0
10.02.25	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	2:1
06.02.25	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	3:0
28.01.24	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	0:1
03.09.23	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	4:0
Coppa Italia
24.05.23	Fiorentina - Inter Milan	1:2
Italian Serie A
01.04.23	Inter Milan - Fiorentina	0:1

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