Match Info

Serie A - Round 29

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Giovanni Zini (Cremona)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Cremonese		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.4	1.9	Watch
	4.15	3.35	1.95
	4.64	3.48	1.93
	4.32	3.48	1.89	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.85
	4.54	3.49	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (3.76)	3.42 ↓ (3.67)	1.91 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cremonese
22%

Draw
27.9%

Fiorentina
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

25.9%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.8%

26.4%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cremonese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cremonese than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.8%	23.1%	64.1%

Cremonese - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Cremonese will win (votes: 9 - 12%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 49 - 65.3%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 54.5% – 76.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Cremonese (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 60%) .

DC - Cremonese (1.82) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fiorentina (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Cremonese (votes: 6 - 24%). Fiorentina (votes: 16 - 64%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Audero E. (G) 55. Folino F. 23. Ceccherini F. 5. Luperto S. 4. Barbieri T. 2. Thorsby M. 38. Bondo W. 29. Maleh Y. 22. Floriani R. 9. Djuric M. 90. Bonazzoli F. (C)	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 4. Brescianini M. 65. Parisi F. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
15. Bianchetti M. 30. Faye M. 33. Grassi A. 14. Moumbagna F. 69. Nava L. (G) 77. Okereke D. 32. Payero M. 99. Sanabria A. 16. Silvestri M. (G) 24. Terracciano F. 27. Vandeputte J. 7. Zerbin A.	62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 17. Harrison J. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 27. Ndour C. 3. Rugani D.
Coaches
Nicola D.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Parisi F. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),
27', Bondo W. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Piccoli R. ⚽, Gosens R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Bondo W. ↓, Grassi A. ↑,
46', Thorsby M. ↓, Okereke D. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Dodo ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
57', 1 - 3, Okereke D. ⚽, Ceccherini F. (A),
62', Maleh Y. ↓, Vandeputte J. ↑,
69', Floriani R. ↓, Zerbin A. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Gudmundsson A. ⚽, Piccoli R. (A),
75', Mandragora R. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
76', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
81', Ceccherini F. ↓, Terracciano F. ↑,
81', Parisi F. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
81', Gosens R. ↓, Rugani D. ↑,
88', Ranieri L. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cremonese won 0.

Cremonese is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fiorentina's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cremonese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fiorentina is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Cremonese: Baschirotto F. (Muscle Injury) Moumbagna F. (Muscle Injury) Pezzella G. (Red Card)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Fortini N. (Back Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Cremonese: Collocolo M. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Cremonese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:15. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cremonese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Cremonese
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Cremonese - Milan	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Roma - Cremonese	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Cremonese - Genoa	0:0 ✺
09.02.26	Atalanta - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Fiorentina - Raków Częstochowa	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
04.01.26	Fiorentina - Cremonese	1:0
Coppa Italia
27.04.23	Fiorentina - Cremonese	0:0
05.04.23	Cremonese - Fiorentina	0:2
Italian Serie A
12.03.23	Cremonese - Fiorentina	0:2
14.08.22	Fiorentina - Cremonese	3:2
Club Friendly
24.07.13	Fiorentina - Cremonese	7:1

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