Match Info

Serie A - Round 27

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli (Udine)

Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Udinese		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.35	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.35
	3.2	3.05	2.42	Watch
	3.37	3.15	2.43
	3.25	3.12	2.39	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.3
	3.36	3.22	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (3.13)	3.12 ↓ (3.35)	2.39 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Udinese
29.5%

Draw
30.6%

Fiorentina
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

28.4%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

27.8%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Udinese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Udinese than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.6%	29.6%	40.7%

Udinese - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Udinese will win (votes: 16 - 29.6%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 22 - 40.7%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 27.6% – 53.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Udinese (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Udinese (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Udinese (1.59) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

DNB - Udinese (2.23) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Udinese (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Fiorentina (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Okoye M. (G) 31. Kristensen T. 27. Kabasele C. 13. Bertola N. 19. Ehizibue K. 24. Piotrowski J. 8. Karlstrom J. (C) 32. Ekkelenkamp J. 33. Zemura J. 10. Zaniolo N. 9. Davis K.	43. de Gea D. (C) 5. Pongracic M. 3. Rugani D. 6. Ranieri L. 17. Harrison J. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 4. Brescianini M. 65. Parisi F. 10. Gudmundsson A. 20. Kean M.
Substitutes
20. Arizala J. 15. Bayo V. 18. Buksa A. 29. Camara A. 7. Gueye I. 11. Kamara H. 38. Miller L. 22. Mlacic B. 1. Nunziante A. (G) 93. Padelli D. (G) 90. Sava R. (G) 6. Zarraga O.	62. Balbo L. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 21. Gosens R. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 27. Ndour C. 91. Piccoli R.
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Kabasele C. ⚽, Zaniolo N. (A),
28', Pongracic M. 🟨,
32', Ehizibue K. 🟨,
32', Parisi F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Brescianini M. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
46', Pongracic M. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
62', Rugani D. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Davis K. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Davis K. ↓, Buksa A. ↑,
71', Mandragora R. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
71', Kean M. ↓, Piccoli R. ↑,
73', Piotrowski J. ↓, Zarraga O. ↑,
73', Bertola N. ↓, Mlacic B. ↑,
73', Zemura J. ↓, Kamara H. ↑,
80', Ranieri L. 🟨,
87', Zaniolo N. ↓, Miller L. ↑,
87', Fagioli N. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Buksa A. ⚽, Miller L. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 1.

Udinese has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fiorentina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Udinese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Udinese: Solet O. (Muscle Injury) Zanoli A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Dodo (Yellow Cards) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Udinese won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Udinese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.35% Udinese: 0.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8:11	-3	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Last Results with these Odds

Udinese - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 30.4%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Fiorentina - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 41.19%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Udinese Calcio
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Bologna - Udinese	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Udinese - Sassuolo	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Lecce - Udinese	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Udinese - Roma	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Verona - Udinese	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LLLWW
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
21.12.25	Fiorentina - Udinese	5:1
25.05.25	Udinese - Fiorentina	2:3
23.12.24	Fiorentina - Udinese	1:2
14.01.24	Fiorentina - Udinese	2:2
24.09.23	Udinese - Fiorentina	0:2
14.05.23	Fiorentina - Udinese	2:0
31.08.22	Udinese - Fiorentina	1:0

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