What is the expert prediction for Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata?

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Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, May 20, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 7
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Paramount+, RedeTV!, Sky+, TV Globo, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 7
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 7
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 7
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 7
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 7, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Flamengo		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5	Watch
	1.49	4.1	6.5
	1.52	3.7	6.9	Watch
	1.52	4.03	7.52
	1.52	3.92	7.23
	1.5	3.7	6.5
	1.53	4	7.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.43)	3.92 ↓ (4.15)	6.9 ↓ (8.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
62.3%

Draw
24.1%

Estudiantes La Plata
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

22.6%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

21.8%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flamengo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Estudiantes will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 21. Jorginho 52. Evertton Araujo 7. Luiz Araujo 15. Carrascal J. 27. Bruno Henrique (C) 9. Pedro	16. Muslera F. (G) 20. Meza E. 4. Nunez S. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 24. Palacios T. 32. Amondarain M. 21. Piovi L. 28. Aguirre B. 10. Palacios T. 22. Castro A. 9. Carrillo G. (C)
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 20. Lucas Paqueta 8. Niguez S. 16. Samuel Lino 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao 64. Wallace Yan	27. Alario L. 13. Benedetti G. 17. Burgos J. 18. Cetre E. 11. Farias F. 8. Gabriel Neves 19. Gaich A. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 29. Perez Fabricio 35. Pierani V. 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Piovi L. 🟨,
37', Meza E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Evertton Araujo 🟨,
52', Luiz Araujo 🟨,
58', Palacios T. 🟨,
60', Luiz Araujo ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
60', Evertton Araujo ↓, Lucas Paqueta ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Pedro ⚽,
72', Aguirre B. ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
72', Castro A. ↓, Farias F. ↑,
75', Palacios T. 🟨,
76', Bruno Henrique ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
85', Palacios T. ↓, Perez Fabricio ↑,
85', Piovi L. ↓, Gabriel Neves ↑,
88', Pedro ↓, Varela G. ↑,
88', Carrascal J. ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
89', Amondarain M. ↓, Gaich A. ↑,
90', Gonzalez Pirez L. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Flamengo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Flamengo is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Luiz Araujo (Injury) Plata G. (Knee Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury) de Arrascaeta G. (Shoulder Injury) de la Cruz N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Estudiantes: Arzamendia S. (Knee Injury) Burgos J. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Flamengo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

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Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Flamengo RJ: 24.18% Estudiantes L.P.: 2.16%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TLW?T
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Racing	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Cusco - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Platense - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Talleres de Córdoba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1
25.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 penalties
18.09.25	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1

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