Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	11:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	02:30	DAZN
Bolivia	20:30	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	21:30	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	03:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	21:30	ESPN 5
Colombia	19:30	ESPN
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	19:30	ESPN
Germany	02:30	DAZN Deutsch, Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	03:30	ERT Sports 2
Hong Kong	08:30	HOY TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 3
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	18:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	02:30	ESPN
New Zealand	13:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Paraguay	21:30	ESPN
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	02:30	Polsat Sport 1
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 2
Spain	02:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	02:30	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
International	00:30	OneFootball TV, Pluto TV


	Flamengo		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	6.25	Watch
	1.47	4.00	7.00
	1.48	3.85	6.8	Watch
	1.52	4.05	7.7
	1.51	4.03	7.4
	1.48	3.85	7.55
	1.51	4.07	7.5	Watch
	1.48	4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)	3.99 ↑ (3.9)	7.13 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
63.1%

Draw
23.7%

Estudiantes La Plata
13.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.7%

24%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

22.8%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

The chances for Estudiantes La Plata have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 11. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro	16. Muslera F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 4. Nunez S. 5. Rojo M. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 21. Piovi L. 22. Castro A. 31. Rodriguez B. 32. Correa J. 17. Burgos J. 9. Carrillo G. (C)
Substitutes
6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 10. de Arrascaeta G. 18. de la Cruz N. 30. Freitas J. 61. Joao Souza 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 19. Plata G. 2. Varela G. 44. Vitao	27. Alario L. 13. Benedetti G. 18. Cetre E. 19. Gaich A. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 52. Kociubinski B. 20. Meza E. 34. Monsalve M. 24. Palacios T. 10. Palacios T. 29. Perez Fabricio 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Rodriguez B. 🟨,
38', Correa J. ↓, Palacios T. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Gonzalez Pirez L. 🟨,
50', Rodriguez B. 🟨,
54', Nunez S. 🟨,
64', Piovi L. 🟨,
64', Carrascal J. ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
77', Burgos J. ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
77', Rojo M. ↓, Palacios T. ↑,
77', Carrillo G. ↓, Gaich A. ↑,
82', Pulgar E. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
82', Alex Sandro ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
82', Samuel Lino ↓, Plata G. ↑,
88', Pedro ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
90', Castro A. ↓, Sosa J. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 3)
1, de Arrascaeta G. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Sosa J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Jorginho (Penalty Awarded),
2, Cetre E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Lucas Paqueta (Penalty Awarded),
3, Mancuso E. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Leo Pereira (Penalty Awarded),
4, Palacios T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Bruno Henrique (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

Flamengo has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Estudiantes have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Flamengo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The betting markets point to Flamengo as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Confirmed absences for Flamengo: Ayrton Lucas (Thigh Injury) Danilo (Inactive) Evertton Araujo (Thigh Injury) Niguez S. (Inactive) de Arrascaeta G. (Wrist Injury).

Confirmed absences for Estudiantes: Elias J. (Muscle Injury) Gabriel Neves (Arm Injury) Meza E. (Inactive) Muslera F. (Inactive) Pierani V. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Estudiantes: Funes Mori R. (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Flamengo in today's match, at odds of 1.38.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:3 (averaging 1:0.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Flamengo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Estudiantes L.P.: 33.13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Bahia - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWTW
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - San Lorenzo	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.10.26	Central Córdoba - Estudiantes La Plata	2:2 ✺
05.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
01.10.26	Platense - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.10.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	0:0
20.05.26	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1
25.09.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 penalties
18.09.25	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1

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