Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Suriname	SCCN


	Flamengo		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	9.00
	1.33	5.50	8.25
	1.32	5.20	8.50
	1.34	5.42	10.16
	1.35	5.51	8.01
	1.32	5.30	10.00
	1.32	5.46	9.96	Watch
	1.36	4.90	7.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.36)	5.32 ↑ (4.45)	8.91 ↑ (8.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
71.5%

Draw
17.8%

Red Bull Bragantino
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

20.8%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

19.8%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 21. Jorginho 8. Niguez S. 19. Plata G. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 15. Carrascal J. 9. Pedro	18. Tiago Volpi (G) 23. Sant'Anna A. 16. Gustavo Marques 2. Rodriguez G. (C) 12. Vanderlan 7. Eric Ramires 5. Fabinho 21. Lucas Barbosa 20. Rodriguinho 11. Fernando Santos 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
26. Alex Sandro 27. Bruno Henrique 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 30. Freitas J. 79. Joshua 7. Luiz Araujo 14. Valencia A. 44. Vitao	4. Alix Vinicius 19. Bruninho 51. Caue Nascimento 1. Cleiton (G) 3. Eduardo Santos 8. Eduardo Sasha 6. Gabriel 32. Herrera J. 34. Hurtado A. 35. Matheus Fernandes 30. Mosquera H. 15. Sosa I.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
6', Fernando Santos 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Varela G. ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
37', Alex Sandro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rodriguinho ↓, Alix Vinicius ↑,
46', Pitta I. ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
51', Varela G. 🟨,
58', Vanderlan ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Pedro ⚽, Jorginho (A),
72', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
72', Carrascal J. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
77', Fabinho ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
78', Tiago Volpi ↓, Cleiton ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Bruno Henrique (Own goal),
89', Bruno Henrique 🟨,
90+2', Plata G. ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
90+2', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
90+6', Herrera J. 🟨,
90+8', Sant'Anna A. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 1st in the Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 10th in the Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.

Flamengo has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

RB Bragantino has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

RB Bragantino could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Flamengo enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Flamengo in today's match, at odds of 1.36.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:18 (averaging 1.4:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Flamengo against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 13:6 goals (averaging 2.2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
17.09.26	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Remo - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWWWW
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Bahia	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	3:0
22.11.25	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0
23.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	1:2
25.08.24	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1
04.05.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	1:1
23.11.23	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0
22.06.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	4:0

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