Match Info

League Two - Round 16

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Highbury Stadium (Fleetwood)

Referee: Eley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Fleetwood Town		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.4	2.3
	2.78	3.55	2.32
	2.81	3.61	2.42
	2.58	3.48	2.49	Watch
	2.85	3.46	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.58)	3.5 ↑ (3.48)	2.37 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fleetwood Town
34%

Draw
26.7%

Swindon Town
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

26.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.1%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Fleetwood will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Swindon will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fleetwood: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleetwood (votes: 3 - 50%). Swindon (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Swindon (1.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleetwood (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Swindon (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lynch J. (C) 18. Holgate H. 4. Bolton J. 32. Hughes K. 20. Neal H. 16. Ennis E. 14. McCann L. 8. Virtue-Thick M. 10. Helm M. 7. Graydon R. 17. Evans C.	1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 33. McGregor J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 18. Kilkenny G. 7. Nichols T. 9. Glatzel P. 28. Palmer O. 44. Oldaker D.
Substitutes
46. Costello C. 19. Coughlan R. 9. Davies W. 1. Harrington D. (G) 35. Haughey C. 23. Morrison G. 44. Mullarkey T.	6. Ball J. 31. Bodin B. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 45. Gray H. 3. Mabete F. 11. Tabor J. 12. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Wild P.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', Kilkenny G. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Tafazolli R. ⚽, Oldaker D. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Graydon R. ⚽, Virtue-Thick M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Tafazolli R. 🟨,
66', Evans C. ↓, Davies W. ↑,
67', Oldaker D. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
67', McGregor J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
78', Virtue-Thick M. ↓, Morrison G. ↑,
82', Ennis E. ↓, Coughlan R. ↑,
83', Nichols T. 🟨,
86', Wright W. ↓, Gray H. ↑,
87', Nichols T. ↓, Ball J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fleetwood won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Fleetwood: Potter F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Munroe F. (Yellow Cards) Smith H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fleetwood: Johnson W. (Inactive) Rooney S. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Swindon: Nichols T. (Injury) Oldaker D. (Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fleetwood won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fleetwood won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fleetwood Town
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	3:4 penalties ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Crawley Town - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Barnet	2:1 ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Fleetwood Town - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Chesterfield - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WLWWT
- Swindon Town
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Swindon Town - Tranmere Rovers	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Rotherham United - Swindon Town	1:2 ET ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Swindon Town - West Ham United U21	2:3 ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Swindon Town - Colchester United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
05.04.25	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:4
07.12.24	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	3:1
English League One
20.03.21	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:2
12.12.20	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	0:1
01.04.17	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:1
17.12.16	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	1:1
02.04.16	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	1:1

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