Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Port Vale		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.6	4.33
	1.63	3.9	4.6
	1.82	3.7	4.45
	1.83	3.7	4.26	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.2
	1.83	3.52	4.23	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.66)	3.63 ↓ (3.85)	4.34 ↓ (4.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
52.7%

Draw
25.8%

Fleetwood Town
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

24.3%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

25.6%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Port Vale, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	33.3%	20%

Port Vale - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Fleetwood will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Fleetwood (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gauci J. (G) 2. Clark M. 4. Heneghan B. 25. Humphreys C. 28. Johnson M. 33. Hall G. 7. Byers G. (C) 26. Shipley J. 19. Waine B. 9. Stockley J. 44. Cole D.	1. Harrington D. (G) 44. Mullarkey T. 35. Haughey C. 3. Medley Z. 20. Neal H. 10. Helm M. 15. Davies J. 6. Bonds E. (C) 16. Ennis E. 14. McCann L. 9. Davies W.
Substitutes
13. Amos B. (G) 10. Brown D. 18. Croasdale R. 36. Faal M. 3. Headley J. 24. Kyle John 30. Lomax B. 17. Paton R. 12. Walters R.	29. Devonport O. 17. Evans C. 32. Hughes K. 13. Lynch J. (G) 38. McLean C. 23. Morrison G. 34. Roberts L. 26. Rooney S. 8. Virtue-Thick M.
Coaches
Moore D.	Wild P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Mullarkey T. 🟨,
42', McCann L. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
45+2', 1 - 0, Shipley J. ⚽, Cole D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Neal H. 🟨,
59', Mullarkey T. ↓, Rooney S. ↑,
59', Neal H. ↓, Hughes K. ↑,
62', Stockley J. ↓, Croasdale R. ↑,
62', Hall G. ↓, Faal M. ↑,
69', Shipley J. 🟨,
71', Davies J. ↓, Virtue-Thick M. ↑,
72', Davies W. ↓, Devonport O. ↑,
75', Johnson M. ↓, Headley J. ↑,
78', Waine B. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
85', Gauci J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 1.

Recent form of Port Vale has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Fleetwood has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Port Vale is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Vale won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
01.01.26	Port Vale - Blackpool	5:1 ✺
29.12.25	Bradford City - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Huddersfield Town - Port Vale	5:0 ✺
20.12.25	Port Vale - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLT
- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
01.01.26	Fleetwood Town - Grimsby Town	0:1 ✺
29.12.25	Salford City - Fleetwood Town	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Tranmere Rovers - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Fleetwood Town - Gillingham	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Newport County - Fleetwood Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	3:4 penalties
English League Two
08.03.25	Fleetwood Town - Port Vale	1:1
19.10.24	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	3:1
English League One
27.02.24	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	2:2
03.02.24	Fleetwood Town - Port Vale	3:0
English League Cup
08.08.23	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	3:2
English League One
11.03.23	Fleetwood Town - Port Vale	1:1

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