Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 July 2024, Wednesday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Ruiz A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 3
Slovenia	SportKlub 1


	Flora Tallinn		Celje

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.2	1.45	Watch
	7	4.4	1.46
	6.5	4.5	1.45	Watch
	6.6	4.33	1.48
	6.69	4.42	1.45	Watch
	7	4.2	1.4
	7.1	4.48	1.5	Watch
	6.7	4.45	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.67 ↑ (5.49)	4.37 ↑ (3.81)	1.45 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flora Tallinn
14.1%

Draw
21.4%

Celje
64.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

24.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.5%

23.9%

60.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flora Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celje's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	11.4%	75%

Flora Tallinn - Celje Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Flora will win (votes: 6 - 14%). Celje will win (votes: 33 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 9.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 64.1% – 89.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grunvald E. (G) 26. Hussar K. 3. Vaher A. 16. Tougjas E. 6. Veering R. 20. Zenjov S. 28. Soomets M. 5. Kreida V. 8. Kuraksin D. 22. Lepik M. A. 9. Alliku R. (C)	22. Rozman M. (C) 23. Karnicnik Z. 3. Vuklisevic D. 6. Zec D. 43. Krefl A. 88. Svetlin T. 19. Zabukovnik M. 8. Bobicanec L. 7. Matko A. 47. Kucys A. 70. Menalo L.
Substitutes
29. Alamaa S. 15. Cekredzi O. 89. Kalimullin M. 23. Kolobov M. 77. Lapa K. (G) 80. Lukas R. 4. Lukka M. 24. Pihela O. 1. Rebane S. (G) 71. Roivassepp G. 7. Varjund T. 14. Vassiljev K.	17. Aarons R. 77. Brnic I. 4. Dulca M. 30. Edmilson 25. Kavcic M. 12. Kolar L. (G) 10. Kouter N. 16. Kvesic M. 81. Nemanic K. 11. Popovic D. 98. Stubljar L. (G)
Coaches
Hurt N.	Krznar D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Matko A. ⚽, Krefl A. (A),
10', 0 - 2, Vuklisevic D. ⚽, Kucys A. (A),
21', Matko A. (Pen),
37', Hussar K. 🟨,
44', Tougjas E. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 3, Zabukovnik M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
66', Kuraksin D. ↓, Roivassepp G. ↑,
70', Matko A. ↓, Aarons R. ↑,
70', Bobicanec L. ↓, Kvesic M. ↑,
71', 0 - 4, Aarons R. ⚽,
74', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Kouter N. ↑,
74', Menalo L. ↓, Popovic D. ↑,
75', Zenjov S. ↓, Varjund T. ↑,
83', Kucys A. ↓, Edmilson ↑,
86', Soomets M. ↓, Cekredzi O. ↑,
89', Zabukovnik M. 🟨,
90', 0 - 5, Svetlin T. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Flora is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Celje is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Flora could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Celje is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.24	Levadia Tallinn - Flora Tallinn	1:0 ✺
29.06.24	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	1:1 ✺
19.06.24	Flora Tallinn - Tammeka	3:1 ✺
15.06.24	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	0:0 ✺
01.06.24	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWTW
- NK Celje
Club Friendly
01.07.24	Celje - Čukarički	0:1 ✺
28.06.24	Celje - Rapid Bucureşti	1:0 ✺
19.06.24	Borac Banja Luka - Celje	2:2 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
18.05.24	Radomlje - Celje	1:1 ✺
12.05.24	Celje - Koper	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTTW

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