Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Nikolic D. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	ORF 1, ORF On
Estonia	Soccernet TV
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Paide LM		Rapid Wien

	1	X	2
	15.00	6.25	1.17	Watch
	13.00	5.60	1.22	Watch
	14.95	6.21	1.20
	14.68	6.47	1.19	Watch
	14.00	5.75	1.18
	17.20	6.82	1.18	Watch
	14.00	6.40	1.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.69 ↑ (5.24)	6.21 ↑ (4.25)	1.19 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
6.4%

Draw
15%

Rapid Wien
78.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

21.8%

60.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

21.6%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paide LM's form might have worsened.

Rapid Wien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rapid Wien's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paide LM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rapid Wien than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rapid Wien, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Paide LM - Rapid Wien Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rapid (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Rapid (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rapid Wien will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rapid (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 27. Baranov N. 3. Victor Hugo 2. Lilander M. 10. Miller M. 28. Hoim O. (C) 6. Daniel Cabral 77. Luts D. 30. Badamosi A. 11. Sohna M. P.	1. Hedl N. (G) 77. Bolla B. 55. Cvetkovic N. 6. Raux-Yao S. 23. Auer J. 17. Gulliksen T. 18. Seidl M. (C) 21. Schaub L. 15. Wurmbrand N. 7. Tilio M. 8. Adamsen T.
Substitutes
4. Andrade 9. Anier H. 17. Cham P. A. 14. Jobarteh M. 44. Kait K. 12. Meerits M. (G) 8. Ojamaa H. 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	30. Bajlicz N. 10. Dahl P. 61. Demir F. 22. Demir Y. 25. Gartler P. (G) 51. Goschl B. (G) 47. Groller A. 43. Haidara M. 38. Horn J. 9. Kara E. 2. Roka E. 4. Scholler J. M.
Coaches
Laurikainen M.	Thorup J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Bolla B. (Penalty Awarded),
41', 1 - 1, Luts D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
55', Hoim O. 🟨,
57', Bolla B. 🟨,
58', Daniel Cabral ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
59', Tilio M. ↓, Dahl P. ↑,
66', Badamosi A. ↓, Anier H. ↑,
69', Schaub L. ↓, Bajlicz N. ↑,
69', Wurmbrand N. ↓, Haidara M. ↑,
69', Gulliksen T. ↓, Demir Y. ↑,
80', Baranov N. ↓, Andrade ↑,
80', Luts D. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Haidara M. ⚽,
85', 1 - 3, Dahl P. ⚽, Bolla B. (A),
87', Bolla B. ↓, Roka E. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 4, Haidara M. ⚽,

Preview

First leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - A. Le Coq Arena.

Paide is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rapid is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Paide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rapid is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.08.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Zira - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Paide LM - Zira	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Harju JK Laagri - Paide LM	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Paide LM - Hegelmann Litauen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 WTWLW
- Rapid Wien
Austrian Bundesliga
02.08.26	Rapid Wien - Rheindorf Altach	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.07.26	Rapid Wien - FC Santa Coloma	6:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
26.07.26	Wienerberg - Rapid Wien	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	FC Santa Coloma - Rapid Wien	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Rapid Wien - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW

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