Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 17 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Floresta		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	2.95	2.3
	2.85	3	2.4	Watch
	2.94	3.05	2.52
	2.87	3.06	2.42	Watch
	2.75	3	2.3
	2.9	3.04	2.37	Watch
	2.85	3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (2.99)	3.01 ↓ (3.25)	2.39 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
31.8%

Draw
30.1%

Athletic Club
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

28.3%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

30.2%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Club could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Floresta - Athletic Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 14. Alisson 17. Bismark 30. Diego Ferreira 31. Icaro 7. Jean Silva 19. Lohan 3. Lucas Santos 21. Marcelo (C) 15. Para 10. Wescley	1. Glauco (G) 10. David Braga 9. Denilson 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 8. Djalma 2. Douglas Pele 7. Geovane 3. Sidimar 4. Victor Sallinas 11. Villero P. 6. Yuri
Substitutes
26. Arilson 6. Bruno Re 23. Buba 16. Davi Castro 29. Esquerdinha 9. Felipe Marques 5. Jo 8. Lucas Alisson 18. Marllon 27. Rayne 2. Watson 12. Wilderk (G)	12. Diego Vitor (G) 15. Ferreira 16. Gustavao 19. Lucas Mineiro 17. Nathan 13. Reginaldo 20. Robinho 14. Ryan Henrique 18. Welinton Torrao
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Denilson ⚽,
19', 0 - 2, Geovane ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Denilson ⚽, Djalma (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bismark ↓, Buba ↑,
46', Jean Silva ↓, Rayne ↑,
48', David Braga 🟨,
50', Sidimar 🟨,
56', Marcelo 🟨,
66', Para ↓, Watson ↑,
66', Diego Ferreira ↓, Esquerdinha ↑,
67', Victor Sallinas ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
67', Geovane ↓, Ryan Henrique ↑,
68', 1 - 3, Buba ⚽,
72', Icaro 🟨,
80', David Braga ↓, Ferreira ↑,
80', Glauco 🟨,
81', Villero P. ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
83', Lucas Santos ↓, Marllon ↑,
90+4', Denilson ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Athletic is Qualified for Serie C (Second stage )

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
12.08.24	Floresta - Ypiranga	2:2 ✺
04.08.24	Londrina - Floresta	0:0 ✺
29.07.24	Aparecidense - Floresta	1:1 ✺
22.07.24	Floresta - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
14.07.24	CS Alagoano - Floresta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 TTTWW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie C
10.08.24	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
03.08.24	Athletic Club - Confiança	3:0 ✺
27.07.24	Tombense - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
21.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
13.07.24	Athletic Club - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWTTW

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