Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 27 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Referee: Goncalves A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Tombense		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	3	2.6
	2.5	3	2.75	Watch
	2.63	3.05	2.84
	2.57	3.01	2.72	Watch
	2.45	3	2.6
	2.52	2.99	2.66	Watch
	2.55	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.21)	3.01 ↓ (3.25)	2.69 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tombense
35.9%

Draw
30.2%

Athletic Club
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

28.3%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

30.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tombense's form might have worsened.

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tombense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Club, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tombense - Athletic Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe Garcia (G) 11. Felipinho 9. Igor Bahia 32. Martins da Silva L. T. 15. Mikael 18. Pierre 22. Rickson 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 31. Rony Fernandes 34. Tiaguinho 27. Wagner Balotelli	1. Glauco (G) 6. Alyson 3. Danilo Cardoso 10. David Braga 5. Diego Fumaca (C) 8. Djalma 2. Douglas Pele 4. Edson Miranda 9. Jonathas 11. Villero P. 7. Welinton Torrao
Substitutes
12. Davi Schneider (G) 20. Denner 29. Diego Fernandes 21. Douglas Coutinho 3. Ednei 19. Gustavo Modesto 13. Iury 23. Jean (G) 7. Jefferson Renan 5. Moises Ribeiro 25. Pedro 10. Rafinha	21. Alason Carioca 18. Caldeira R. 22. Caua 20. Denilson 12. Jefferson Luis (G) 19. Neto Costa 17. Rafael Conceicao 16. Reginaldo 15. Sidimar 14. Victor Sallinas 13. Ynaia
Coaches
Raul Cabral	Roger Silva

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Pierre 🟨,
25', Mikael 🟨,
40', Danilo Cardoso 🟨,
42', Djalma 🟨,
43', Alyson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Felipinho ↓, Jefferson Renan ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Villero P. ⚽,
50', Edson Miranda 🟨,
57', Mikael ↓, Iury ↑,
57', Pierre ↓, Rafinha ↑,
61', Alyson 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Rony Fernandes ⚽,
67', Jonathas ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
67', David Braga ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
67', Douglas Pele ↓, Ynaia ↑,
72', Wagner Balotelli ↓, Denner ↑,
78', Djalma ↓, Caldeira R. ↑,
83', Villero P. 🟨,
87', Martins da Silva L. T. ↓, Douglas Coutinho ↑,
90+3', Iury 🟨,
90+3', Diego Fumaca 🟨,
90+5', Caldeira R. ↓, Sidimar ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Tombense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Tombense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
20.07.24	Tombense - Figueirense	1:1 ✺
15.07.24	ABC - Tombense	1:0 ✺
07.07.24	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
01.07.24	Londrina - Tombense	3:3 ✺
26.06.24	Tombense - Caxias	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLTTW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie C
21.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
13.07.24	Athletic Club - Londrina	2:1 ✺
07.07.24	Figueirense - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
04.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
29.06.24	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
03.02.24	Tombense - Athletic Club	1:0
21.01.23	Athletic Club - Tombense	3:1
09.02.22	Athletic Club - Tombense	1:0
04.04.21	Tombense - Athletic Club	2:1

Upcoming Matches