Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 8

Date: 31 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Floresta		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.85	3
	2.33	2.85	3.15	Watch
	2.39	2.96	3.23
	2.42	2.91	3.25	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.1
	2.31	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.33	2.85	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.23)	2.87 ↓ (3.15)	3.15 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
39.2%

Draw
31.8%

Itabaiana
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

28.9%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

27.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Floresta - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dalton (G) 8. Guilherme Nunes 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 6. Rafael Furlan 7. Ruan 11. Thiaguinho 13. Thomas Kayck 3. Vitao	1. Jefferson (G) 3. Betao (C) 7. Carlos Coppetti 14. Fabian Fernandez Nizio A. R. 20. Fabricio Oya 21. Fredson 8. Gabriel Henrique 25. Gustavo Fagundes 19. Joao Cabral 6. Kevin 16. Robinho
Substitutes
22. Cesar (G) 17. Diego Matos 25. Diogo Mourao 18. Guilherme Martineli 15. Igor Dutra 4. Julio Vaz 20. Marco Antonio 5. Robson Alemao 29. Rodrigo 19. Rubens 21. Vitinho 12. Wilderk (G)	5. Bruno Sena 23. Elimar 44. Geaze (G) 30. Jackson 22. Kauan Santos 26. Leilson 28. Luis Fernando 27. Rhuan Silveira 10. Tarcisio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Rafael Furlan 🟨,
28', Guilherme Nunes ↓, Guilherme Martineli ↑,
30', Fredson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Betao ↓, Bruno Sena ↑,
46', Thiaguinho ↓, Diogo Mourao ↑,
58', Bruno Sena 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Pablo ⚽,
68', Ruan 🟨,
71', Ruan ↓, Robson Alemao ↑,
72', Carlos Coppetti ↓, Tarcisio ↑,
72', Fabricio Oya ↓, Jackson ↑,
72', Joao Cabral ↓, Rhuan Silveira ↑,
76', Fabian Fernandez Nizio A. R. ↓, Leilson ↑,
83', Pablo 🟨,
84', Gustavo Fagundes 🟨,
85', Jeam ↓, Rubens ↑,
85', Icaro ↓, Julio Vaz ↑,
89', Guilherme Martineli 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16).

Floresta is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Itabaiana has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Floresta will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Floresta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	Floresta - Guarani	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Botafogo PB - Floresta	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Floresta - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
28.04.25	Anápolis - Floresta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 TTWWT
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
24.05.25	Itabaiana - Caxias	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Retrô Brasil - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
12.05.25	Itabaiana - Figueirense	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Tombense - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Itabaiana - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
12.12.20	Itabaiana - Floresta	2:2
05.12.20	Floresta - Itabaiana	2:1

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