Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Floresta		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.7
	1.98	2.82	3.95	Watch
	2.02	2.93	4.55
	2.01	2.91	4.37	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4
	1.97	2.91	4.03	Watch
	1.97	3.2	3.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.96)	2.92 ↓ (3.2)	4.06 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
46.2%

Draw
31.3%

Tombense
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

28.6%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Floresta - Tombense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Floresta will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dalton (G) 17. Diego Matos 8. Guilherme Nunes 10. Gustavo Xuxa 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 30. Romarinho 13. Thomas Kayck 3. Vitao	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 7. Andre Cardoso 5. Claudinei 8. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Jefferson Renan 6. Kaike 2. Leo Pereira 9. Rafhael Lucas 4. Roger Carvalho (C)
Substitutes
22. Cesar (G) 16. Davi Castro 12. Dheimison (G) 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 15. Igor Dutra 4. Julio Vaz 20. Marco Antonio 29. Rodrigo 14. Rodriguinho 19. Rubens 11. Thiaguinho	13. Breno Roma 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 16. Dudu Mandai 14. Fernando 18. Joao Vitor 22. Jupi 21. Pedro Oliveira 19. Rafael Silva 17. Vasconcelos H. 15. Wesley
Coaches
Leston Junior	Marcelo Chamusca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Kaike 🟨,
18', Rafhael Lucas 🟨,
24', Pablo 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Icaro ⚽,
38', Guilherme Nunes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Gustavo Xuxa ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
70', Jeam 🟨,
73', Romarinho ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
73', Jeam ↓, Rubens ↑,
76', Rafhael Lucas ↓, Vasconcelos H. ↑,
81', Claudinei ↓, Cleiton ↑,
85', Pablo ↓, Guilherme Martineli ↑,
85', Mateus Ludke ↓, Igor Dutra ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

In recent matches, Floresta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tombense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tombense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Floresta might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Floresta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	Maringá - Floresta	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Floresta - ABC	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Ponte Preta - Floresta	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Floresta - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTLWT
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	São Bernardo - Tombense	2:0 ✺
28.07.25	Tombense - Maringá	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Confiança - Tombense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
22.06.24	Tombense - Floresta	3:0
12.09.21	Tombense - Floresta	0:0
11.07.21	Floresta - Tombense	1:1

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