Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 13

Date: 19 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Ponte Preta		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.71	3	5
	1.6	3.35	5.35	Watch
	1.61	3.59	6
	1.67	3.20	6.12	Watch
	1.75	3	4.8
	1.59	3.4	5.69	Watch
	1.59	3.42	5.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.57)	3.28 ↓ (3.33)	5.51 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
55.5%

Draw
27.9%

Floresta
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

27%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

28.8%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Ponte Preta - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 15. Artur 33. Danrlei Santos 10. Elvis (C) 18. Emerson Santos 29. Everton Brito 9. Jeh 20. Joao Gabriel 17. Jonas Toro 25. Lucas Candido 34. Wanderson	12. Dheimison (G) 8. Guilherme Nunes 10. Gustavo Xuxa 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 6. Rafael Furlan 30. Romarinho 13. Thomas Kayck 3. Vitao
Substitutes
77. Bruno Lopes 35. Diego Tavares 21. Dudu 7. Jean Dias 36. Leocovick 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 5. Rodrigo Souza 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael	22. Cesar (G) 17. Diego Matos 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 15. Igor Dutra 4. Julio Vaz 20. Marco Antonio 29. Rodrigo 19. Rubens 11. Thiaguinho
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Leston Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Thomas Kayck 🟨,
11', Danrlei Santos 🟨,
35', Dheimison 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Danrlei Santos ↓, Dudu ↑,
52', 0 - 1, Pablo ⚽,
58', Gustavo Xuxa ↓, Gustavo Ramos ↑,
59', Jonas Toro ↓, Jean Dias ↑,
59', Lucas Candido ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
68', Elvis (Pen),
68', 1 - 1, Elvis ⚽,
69', Rafael Furlan ↓, Rubens ↑,
69', Jeam ↓, Diego Matos ↑,
77', Joao Gabriel ↓, Pacheco ↑,
79', Romarinho ↓, Guilherme Martineli ↑,
79', Vitao ↓, Julio Vaz ↑,
83', Everton Brito ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Bruno Lopes ⚽,
90', Diogo Silva 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In recent matches, Ponte Preta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Floresta is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ponte Preta is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Maringá - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
02.06.25	Ponte Preta - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWTL
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.25	Floresta - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Floresta - Brusque	2:1 ✺
16.06.25	CS Alagoano - Floresta	2:0 ✺
31.05.25	Floresta - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WTWLW

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