Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	3.4	6
	1.37	3.8	8.8	Watch
	1.36	4.2	10.83
	1.48	3.67	7.92	Watch
	1.55	3.2	6.5
	1.41	3.86	10.2	Watch
	1.49	3.45	7.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.5)	3.65 ↑ (3.48)	8.21 ↑ (6.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
63.5%

Draw
25.3%

Tombense
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

26%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

24.5%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

São Bernardo - Tombense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - São Bernardo (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: São Bernardo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Junior Oliveira (G) 32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho 3. Helder Maciel (C) 21. Hugo Sanches 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 4. Rafael Forster 17. Romisson	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 6. Dudu Mandai 5. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Jefferson Renan 2. Julio Henrique 8. Lucas Mila 7. Pedro Oliveira 9. Rafael Silva 4. Roger Carvalho (C)
Substitutes
1. Alex Alves (G) 97. Augusto 44. Caio Garcez 7. Echapora 90. Felipe Garcia 77. Guilherme Queiroz 28. Joao Paulo 22. Leo Duarte 8. Lucas Buchecha 25. Pedro Carrerette 30. Sillas 31. Victor Andrade	21. Adson 17. Andre Cardoso 13. Breno Roma 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 14. Fernando 18. Joao Vitor 22. Jupi 19. Luiz Felipe 16. Tarcisio 15. Wesley
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Marcelo Chamusca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Hugo Sanches ⚽,
62', Bastos R. ↓, Felipe Garcia ↑,
62', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
75', Pedro Felipe ↓, Echapora ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Romisson ⚽,
80', Julio Henrique 🟨,
81', Para ↓, Caio Garcez ↑,
83', Fabricio Dias ↓, Andre Cardoso ↑,
83', Lucas Mila ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
83', Jefferson Renan ↓, Jupi ↑,
85', Joao Paulo 🟨,
90+3', Adson 🟥,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

São Bernardo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tombense is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, São Bernardo is the clear favorite.

We predict that São Bernardo will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Including home match between the teams, São Bernardo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
27.07.25	São Bernardo - Confiança	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Ypiranga - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Botafogo PB - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	São Bernardo - Anápolis	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWTW
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
28.07.25	Tombense - Maringá	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Confiança - Tombense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
27.04.24	São Bernardo - Tombense	4:2

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