Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
South-america	ESPN 5 South


	River Plate Montevideo		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.5
	2.7	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.76	3.19	2.75
	2.71	3.13	2.66	Watch
	2.75	3	2.6
	2.74	3.14	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.42)	3.16 ↑ (3.04)	2.6 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
34.5%

Draw
29.5%

Montevideo Wanderers
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

30.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

30.2%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Montevideo Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montevideo Wanderers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - River Plate (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Ramos N. 2. Perez F. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 15. Jourdan E. 26. Orono G. 14. De Leon F. 11. De Los Santos J. 18. Lopez I.	1. Silveira M. (G) 22. Figueredo S. 2. Lima P. 23. Garcia E. 6. Zazpe L. 27. Teuten A. 20. Lima P. 18. Cerro F. 17. Suarez M. 10. Viudez T. 19. Zeballos J.
Substitutes
22. Alfonso M. 19. Barone F. 29. Camejo L. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez L. 27. Lopez I. 7. Quintana J. 23. Rodriguez F. 10. Vera A.	14. Acosta M. 28. Cosentino L. 25. da Silva J. (G) 11. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 5. Queiroz N. 7. Rivero R. 15. Royon N. 24. Suarez P. 8. Veglio B. 16. Wagner G.
Coaches
Lopez D.	Martinez J. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Suarez M. 🟨,
40', Viudez T. ↓, Rivero R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Suarez M. ↓, Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ↑,
60', Zeballos J. ↓, Royon N. ↑,
65', Zazpe L. 🟨,
65', De Leon F. 🟨,
73', Perez F. ↓, Camejo L. ↑,
73', Cabrera F. ↓, Vera A. ↑,
76', Orono G. ↓, Alfonso M. ↑,
83', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
83', Lopez I. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
85', Teuten A. ↓, Acosta M. ↑,
85', Cerro F. ↓, Veglio B. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Camejo L. (Own goal),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 4.

River Plate has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Wanderers's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Wanderers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.3:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.44%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.25	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
26.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LWLWT
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	Boston River - Montevideo Wanderers	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
19.04.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Montevideo City Torque	0:0 ✺
07.04.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.10.24	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:1
23.06.24	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	1:3
06.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1
Uruguay Copa
07.02.24	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	0:4
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.11.23	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
01.07.23	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	4:0
16.04.23	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2

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