Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Fluminense		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.72	3.55	4.7
	1.77	3.67	5.19
	1.74	3.69	4.99
	1.73	3.4	4.6
	1.77	3.67	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.69)	3.58 ↑ (3.48)	4.98 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
54.6%

Draw
26.4%

Athletico Paranaense
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

26.6%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

26%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fluminense (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 11. Savarino J. 32. Acosta L. 17. Canobbio A. 9. John Kennedy	23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 13. Teran C. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 27. Portilla J. 14. Luiz Gustavo 20. Julimar 10. Zapelli B. 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
25. Alisson 19. Castillo R. 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 46. Julio Fidelis 29. Millan J. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 6. Rene 90. Serna K. 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	33. Aguirre F. 48. Bruninho 47. Chiqueti 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 16. Jadson 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Mendoza S. ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
9', 1 - 1, Hercules ⚽, Savarino J. (A),
15', Savarino J. 🟨,
28', Zapelli B. 🟥,
37', 2 - 1, Canobbio A. ⚽, Savarino J. (A),
45+7', Teran C. ↓, Aguirre F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Julimar ↓, Jadson ↑,
46', Portilla J. ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
59', Viveros K. 🟨,
73', John Kennedy ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
74', Savarino J. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
74', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
74', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
75', 2 - 2, Luiz Gustavo ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
84', Hercules ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
90', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
90', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Felipinho ↑,
90+3', Jadson 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 2, Guilherme Arana ⚽,
90+6', Samuel Xavier ↓, Jemmes ↑,
90+9', Esquivel L. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Bernal F. (Injury) PH Ganso (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Garcia Castillo A. (Inactive) Isaac (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Cano G. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:28. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Remo - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	0:1 penalties ✺
01.03.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLTLW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
15.02.26	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.12.24	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	1:1
22.10.24	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
27.08.23	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	2:2
22.04.23	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
03.09.22	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	1:0
14.05.22	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
17.10.21	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	0:1

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