Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 23

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday


	Folgore Caratese		Pavia

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.55	4.65
	1.64	3.66	4.8
	1.61	3.64	4.88
	1.66	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.52)	3.61 ↓ (3.75)	4.71 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore Caratese
55.6%

Draw
25.1%

Pavia
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

24%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

22.3%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore Caratese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Pavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Folgore Caratese - Pavia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gjonaj E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 2 - 0, Capelli A. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Folgore Caratese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Folgore Caratese has had a series of away games.

In this match, Folgore Caratese is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Folgore Caratese won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Folgore Caratese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group B
01.02.26	Leon - Folgore Caratese	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Castellanzese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Folgore Caratese - Villa Valle	3:0 ✺
06.01.26	Varesina - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Sondrio - Folgore Caratese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWTT
- Pavia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
01.02.26	Pavia - Real Calepina	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Breno - Pavia	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Pavia - Oltrepo	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Milan Futuro - Pavia	0:1 ✺
06.01.26	Pavia - Caldiero Terme	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
05.10.25	Pavia - Folgore Caratese	0:1
Club Friendly
07.08.25	Folgore Caratese - Pavia	1:1
Italian Serie D - Group A
17.01.18	Pavia - Folgore Caratese	2:1
13.09.17	Folgore Caratese - Pavia	2:1

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