Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 12 June 2025, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.4
	2.25	3.05	3.3	Watch
	2.13	3.04	4.02
	2.03	3.14	3.92	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.7
	2.25	3.28	3.42	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.07)	3.12 ↓ (3.22)	3.55 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
43.2%

Draw
30.2%

Santos
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

29.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

29.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	7.1%	21.4%

Fortaleza - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Santos will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 6 - 60%). Santos (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 33. Britez E. (C) 23. David Luiz 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 17. Ze Welison 8. Emmanuel Martinez 7. Pochettino T. 11. Marinho 18. Deyverson 26. Breno Lopes	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 31. Escobar G. 3. Joao Basso 14. Luan Peres 33. Souza 6. Ze Rafael 21. Diego Pituca (C) 32. Rollheiser B. 22. Barreal A. 9. Tiquinho Soares 11. Guilherme
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 3. Avila G. 12. Brenno (G) 10. Calebe 16. Diogo Barbosa 38. Lucca Prior 9. Lucero J. 14. Mancuso E. 28. Pedro Augusto 80. Pereira M. 2. Tinga 22. Yago Pikachu	13. Aderlan 36. Deivid Washington 12. Diogenes (G) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 20. Hyan 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 5. Joao Schmidt 79. Luca Meirelles 25. Luisao 8. Rincon T. 16. Thaciano 2. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Xavier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Barreal A. ⚽, Rollheiser B. (A),
35', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, Guilherme ⚽, Tiquinho Soares (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Souza ↓, Ze Ivaldo ↑,
56', Marinho 🟨,
60', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Calebe ↑,
60', Marinho ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
65', Tiquinho Soares ↓, Thaciano ↑,
66', Britez E. 🟨,
71', 1 - 2, Yago Pikachu (Pen),
74', 2 - 2, Yago Pikachu (Pen),
77', Breno Lopes ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
77', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
79', Ze Welison 🟨,
80', Diego Pituca ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
80', Barreal A. ↓, Deivid Washington ↑,
85', Ze Rafael ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
86', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
89', David Luiz 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 3, Rollheiser B. ⚽, Gabriel Bontempo (A),
90+3', Joao Pedro Chermont 🟨,
90+5', Joao Schmidt 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.

Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Santos is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Lucas Sasha (Forearm injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Hamstring Injury) Neymar (Red Card) Neymar (Illness)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Matheus Rossetto (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 1.8:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Flamengo - Fortaleza	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.05.25	Racing - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Santos - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
28.05.25	Santos - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Santos	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	CRB Maceio - Santos	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Corinthians - Santos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.12.23	Santos - Fortaleza	1:2
13.08.23	Fortaleza - Santos	4:0
13.11.22	Santos - Fortaleza	0:2
24.07.22	Fortaleza - Santos	0:0
25.11.21	Santos - Fortaleza	2:0
15.08.21	Fortaleza - Santos	1:1
21.01.21	Fortaleza - Santos	2:0

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