Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 25 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Fortaleza		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	4	Watch
	2	3.1	3.9
	1.95	3.3	4	Watch
	2.14	3.16	4.01
	2.14	3.22	3.68
	2	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.18	3.86	Watch
	2	3.2	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.4)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)	3.86 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
46.3%

Draw
29.4%

Boca Juniors
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

29.5%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

28.9%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boca Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Boca Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Fortaleza - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 22. Yago Pikachu (C) 19. Britez E. 25. Cardona T. 6. Bruno Pacheco 35. Hercules 17. Ze Welison 28. Pedro Augusto 7. Pochettino T. 9. Lucero J. 39. Machuca I.	1. Romero S. (G) 2. Lema C. 4. Figal J. 3. Saracchi M. 18. Fabra F. 47. Saralegui J. 21. Fernandez I. 40. Di Lollo L. 36. Medina C. 14. Langoni L. 16. Miguel Merentiel
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 8. Emmanuel Martinez 37. Kauan 88. Lucas Sasha 18. Luquinhas 16. Matheus Rossetto 21. Moises 32. Pedro Rocha 79. Renato Kayzer 23. Santos (G) 2. Tinga 4. Titi	17. Advincula L. 9. Benedetto D. 23. Blanco L. 12. Brey L. (G) 29. Briasco N. 49. Campuzano J. 43. Delgado M. 8. Fernandez G. 11. Janson L. 6. Rojo M. 39. Taborda V. 22. Zenon K.
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Lucero J. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
17', Miguel Merentiel 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Miguel Merentiel ⚽, Saralegui J. (A),
23', Cardona T. ↓, Titi ↑,
34', Saracchi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
51', 2 - 1, Lucero J. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
53', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
55', 3 - 1, Yago Pikachu ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
63', 4 - 1, Yago Pikachu ⚽, Machuca I. (A),
64', Langoni L. ↓, Briasco N. ↑,
64', Di Lollo L. ↓, Advincula L. ↑,
64', Fabra F. ↓, Zenon K. ↑,
72', Saralegui J. ↓, Fernandez G. ↑,
73', Ze Welison ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
74', Machuca I. ↓, Moises ↑,
77', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
81', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
82', Hercules ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
82', Lucero J. ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,
82', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Janson L. ↑,
85', 4 - 2, Zenon K. ⚽, Briasco N. (A),
90+6', Fernandez G. 🟨,
90+6', Renato Kayzer 🟨,

Preview

Fortaleza is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Boca Juniors in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortaleza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
21.04.24	Fortaleza - Altos	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.04.24	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Fortaleza - Nacional Potosí	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
06.04.24	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTWWL
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.04.24	River Plate - Boca Juniors	2:3 ✺
16.04.24	Boca Juniors - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
12.04.24	Estudiantes La Plata - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Boca Juniors - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.04.24	Newells Old Boys - Boca Juniors	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
12.10.20	Fortaleza - Boca Juniors	1:0
02.09.19	Boca Juniors - Fortaleza	0:1

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