Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.45	3.1	3.1
	2.35	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.15	3.4
	2.36	3.08	3.32	Watch
	2.5	2.9	3
	2.37	3.08	3.28	Watch
	2.35	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.62)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	3.25 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
39.9%

Draw
30.9%

Cruzeiro
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

30.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

31.9%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Fortaleza - Cruzeiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cruzeiro (2.37) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Fortaleza (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cruzeiro (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Cruzeiro (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 13. Kuscevic B. 39. Gustavo Mancha 16. Diogo Barbosa 5. Fernandez P. 17. Ze Welison 8. Emmanuel Martinez 22. Yago Pikachu 9. Lucero J. 26. Breno Lopes	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 17. Marquinhos 9. Gabriel Barbosa 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
19. Allanzinho 77. Andrade K. 3. Avila G. 12. Brenno (G) 33. Britez E. 10. Calebe 18. Deyverson 38. Lucca Prior 14. Mancuso E. 28. Pedro Augusto 7. Pochettino T. 4. Titi	11. Bolasie Y. 26. Diaz L. 99. Dinenno J. 21. Eduardo 23. Fagner 14. Gamarra M. 34. Jonathan Jesus 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 35. Murilo Rhikman 75. Rodriguinho
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
41', 0 - 2, Lucas Silva ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
45+3', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Mancuso E. ↑,
46', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
46', Fernandez P. ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
54', Villalba L. 🟨,
65', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
68', Marquinhos ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
68', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Eduardo ↑,
71', Ze Welison ↓, Calebe ↑,
79', Breno Lopes ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
82', Kaio Jorge ↓, Kenji ↑,
83', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
90', Romero L. ↓, Murilo Rhikman ↑,
90+1', Christian ↓, Diaz L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 2.

Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cruzeiro is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Marinho (Red Card) Moises (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury) Matheus Pereira (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Rodrigo (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Japa (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.05.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Fortaleza - Colo-Colo	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTWW
- Cruzeiro MG
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cruzeiro - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.08.24	Cruzeiro - Fortaleza	1:2
17.04.24	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	1:1
18.11.23	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	0:1
21.06.23	Cruzeiro - Fortaleza	0:1
26.10.19	Cruzeiro - Fortaleza	1:1
12.06.19	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	2:1

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