Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 21

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)


	Fortaleza		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.44	4	8.5	Watch
	1.48	4.25	7
	1.48	4.34	8.01
	1.46	4.3	7.2	Watch
	1.45	4.2	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.56)	4.22 ↑ (3.81)	7.58 ↑ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
65%

Draw
22.5%

Coritiba
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

24.6%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

23.8%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Fortaleza - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Coritiba will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 19. Britez E. 5. Marcelo Benevenuto 4. Titi 33. Escobar G. 8. Caio Alexandre 21. Pedro Augusto 7. Pochettino T. 12. Marinho 29. Guilherme 9. Lucero J.	1. Gabriel (G) 16. Natanael 13. Kuscevic B. 4. Reynaldo 83. Jamerson 6. Bruno Gomes 19. Gomez S. 17. Matheus Bianqui 10. Marcelino Moreno 18. de Oliveira Barbosa D. 30. Robson
Substitutes
6. Bruno Pacheco 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 3. Figueiredo T. 10. Lucas Crispim 88. Lucas Sasha 39. Machuca I. 11. Romarinho 18. Romero S. 91. Thiago Galhardo 2. Tinga 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison	7. Andrey 29. Diogo Batista 99. Edu 15. Fransergio 2. Hayner 3. Henrique 27. Luan Polli (G) 21. Lucas Barbosa 12. Marcao (G) 5. Mauricio 33. Mauricio 26. Victor Luis
Coaches
Vojvoda J. P.	Kosloski T.

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 3.

Fortaleza is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Coritiba is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fortaleza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Hercules (Knee Injury) Pedro Rocha (Knee Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortaleza won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Copa Sudamericana
24.08.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.08.23	Internacional RS - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
13.08.23	Fortaleza - Santos	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.08.23	Fortaleza - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.08.23	Goiás - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWTL
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
20.08.23	Coritiba - Flamengo	2:3 ✺
13.08.23	Corinthians - Coritiba	3:1 ✺
06.08.23	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
30.07.23	Botafogo RJ - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
24.07.23	Coritiba - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
23.04.23	Coritiba - Fortaleza	0:3
27.10.22	Fortaleza - Coritiba	3:1
03.07.22	Coritiba - Fortaleza	2:1
04.02.21	Fortaleza - Coritiba	3:1
10.10.20	Coritiba - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
23.11.18	Coritiba - Fortaleza	1:0
04.08.18	Fortaleza - Coritiba	2:1

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