Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 8 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5


	Fortaleza		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.4	3.9
	1.9	3.45	4.1
	1.95	3.53	4.01
	1.88	3.25	3.8
	1.9	3.6	3.94	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.87)	3.48 ↓ (3.7)	3.91 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
49.1%

Draw
26.9%

Libertad Asuncion
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

25.2%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

25.6%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Fortaleza - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 19. Britez E. 4. Titi 6. Bruno Pacheco 17. Ze Welison 8. Caio Alexandre 21. Pedro Augusto 39. Machuca I. 91. Thiago Galhardo 27. Calebe	1. Silva M. (C) 4. Gimenez N. 5. Viera D. 3. Barboza A. 17. Espinoza M. 33. Piris I. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 15. Villalba H. 7. Cardozo O. 10. Melgarejo L.
Substitutes
16. Fernando Miguel (G) 3. Figueiredo T. 29. Guilherme 10. Lucas Crispim 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Marcelo Benevenuto 12. Marinho 7. Pochettino T. 11. Romarinho 18. Romero S. 22. Yago Pikachu 15. Zanocelo	13. Alcaraz A. 20. Bareiro A. 26. Caballero H. 14. Cardozo L. 28. Fernandez M. 30. Gonzalez D. 19. Lezcano R. 11. Mendieta W. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C. 24. Santa C. R.
Coaches
Vojvoda J. P.	Garnero D.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Fortaleza is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
05.08.23	Goiás - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Libertad Asuncion - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.23	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	0:3 ✺
22.07.23	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
16.07.23	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.08.23	Libertad Asuncion - General Caballero JLM	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Libertad Asuncion - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.07.23	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
24.07.23	Libertad Asuncion - Guaireña	4:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.07.23	Tigre - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
01.08.23	Libertad Asuncion - Fortaleza	0:1

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