Match Info

Serie B - Round 10

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Fortaleza		Londrina

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	6	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.7	Watch
	1.58	3.94	6.8
	1.54	4.02	6	Watch
	1.57	3.6	5.75
	1.54	3.86	6.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.45)	3.85 ↓ (4.19)	6.09 ↓ (7.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
60.3%

Draw
24.3%

Londrina
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

22.3%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

21.5%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Fortaleza - Londrina Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Londrina will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 75. Rodriguinho 20. Matheus Rossetto 88. Lucas Sasha 18. Fuentes G. 11. Vitinho 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.	30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 13. Andre Dhominique 27. Caio Rodrigues 15. Gabriel Lacerda (C) 6. Rafael Monteiro 5. Andre Luiz 7. Vitinho Mota 32. Joao Tavares 96. Thalis 11. Iago Teles 9. Bruno Santos
Substitutes
33. Kaua Rocha 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 13. Mauricio Junior 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	17. Andre Cardoso 28. Caio Maia 55. Caio Rafael 20. Fabiano 34. Heron 77. Juninho 29. Kaue Leonardo 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 18. Paulinho Moccelin 3. Yago Lincoln
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Rogerio Micale

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Matheus Rossetto 🟨,
29', Britez E. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Vitinho ⚽, Matheus Rossetto (A),
45+1', Caio Rodrigues 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Andre Luiz ↓, Andre Cardoso ↑,
46', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
51', Vitinho Mota 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Luiz Fernando (Penalty Awarded),
56', Thalis ↓, Caio Rafael ↑,
56', Vitinho Mota ↓, Paulinho Moccelin ↑,
63', Rafael Monteiro 🟨,
65', Joao Tavares ↓, Fabiano ↑,
74', Fuentes G. ↓, Mauricio Junior ↑,
75', Caio Rodrigues ↓, Juninho ↑,
79', Rafael Monteiro ↓, Heron ↑,
83', Rodriguinho 🟨,
83', Iago Teles 🟨,
84', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
84', Miritello J. B. ↓, Kayke ↑,
90+3', Lucas Sasha ↓, Ryan ↑,
90+3', Luiz Fernando ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
90+9', 3 - 0, Lucca Prior ⚽, Kayke (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Londrina is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fortaleza is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) GB (Inactive) Mailton (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Londrina: Heron (Injury) Kevyn (Inactive) Lucas Marques (Red Card) Wallace (Injury)

There are questionable in Londrina: Gilberto (Inactive) Vitinho Mota (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.05.26	Confiança - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTTW
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.26	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:4 ✺
12.05.26	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Londrina	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Juventude - Londrina	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
25.08.18	Fortaleza - Londrina	2:1
01.05.18	Londrina - Fortaleza	1:1

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