Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Fortaleza		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	11
	1.26	5	9.5
	1.29	5	10
	1.24	5.56	13.63
	1.27	5.07	12.45
	1.25	5	12
	1.3	5.33	10.6
	1.29	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.37)	5.15 ↑ (4.31)	11.15 ↑ (9.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
73.5%

Draw
18.1%

Retrô Brasil
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

21.7%

10.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

20.5%

9.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 23. David Luiz 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 5. Fernandez P. 8. Emmanuel Martinez 7. Pochettino T. 11. Marinho 18. Deyverson 26. Breno Lopes	12. Fabian Volpi (G) 25. Eduardo 4. Rayan Ribeiro 29. Mendonca 6. Gustavo Salomao 20. Gledson 26. Ly I. 8. Radsley 13. Mike 9. Mascote 30. Maycon Douglas
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 12. Brenno (G) 33. Britez E. 10. Calebe 16. Diogo Barbosa 38. Lucca Prior 9. Lucero J. 14. Mancuso E. 28. Pedro Augusto 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison	22. Bruno Marques 3. Claudinho 17. Diego Guerra 18. Franco R. 2. Gedeilson 11. Junior Fialho 28. Lucas Grafite 21. Marquinhos 1. Paulo Gianezini (G) 19. Rayne Assis 5. Romulo 15. Walce
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Wires

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Fernandez P. 🟨,
42', Mike 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Maycon Douglas ↓, Junior Fialho ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Breno Lopes ⚽, Deyverson (A),
61', Rayan Ribeiro 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Mike ⚽, Eduardo (A),
68', Mascote ↓, Bruno Marques ↑,
68', Eduardo ↓, Gedeilson ↑,
68', Mike ↓, Diego Guerra ↑,
72', Pochettino T. ↓, Calebe ↑,
73', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
73', Breno Lopes ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
78', Mendonca 🟨,
82', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
88', Ly I. ↓, Franco R. ↑,
88', Fernandez P. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
90+3', Britez E. 🟨,
90+4', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
Penalties (1 - 4)
1, Bruno Marques (Pen),
1, Lucero J. (Pen),
2, Junior Fialho (Pen),
2, Yago Pikachu (Pen),
3, Radsley (Pen),
3, Andrade K. (Pen),
4, Franco R. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fortaleza is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.05.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Fortaleza - Colo-Colo	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTWWT
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Serie C
18.05.25	Retrô Brasil - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Caxias - Retrô Brasil	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Floresta - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Figueirense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Fortaleza	1:1
14.03.24	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:0 penalties

Upcoming Matches