Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 9

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Vasco da Gama		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	3	Watch
	2.5	3	3.1
	2.55	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.57	3.03	3.29
	2.54	2.93	3.17	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.6	2.94	3.05	Watch
	2.55	2.9	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.33)	2.95 ↓ (3.26)	3.14 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
37.6%

Draw
32.1%

Fortaleza
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.9%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.4%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Fortaleza aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	41.7%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Vasco (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vasco (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 44. Luiz Gustavo 6. Lucas Piton 3. Tche Tche 25. Hugo Moura 77. Rayan 11. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 14. Mancuso E. 13. Kuscevic B. 39. Gustavo Mancha 3. Avila G. 20. Matheus Rossetto 88. Lucas Sasha 22. Yago Pikachu (C) 7. Pochettino T. 26. Breno Lopes 9. Lucero J.
Substitutes
28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 4. Lemos M. 29. Lucas Oliveira 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 12. Victor Luis	19. Allanzinho 77. Andrade K. 12. Brenno (G) 33. Britez E. 6. Bruno Pacheco 10. Calebe 23. David Luiz 18. Deyverson 8. Emmanuel Martinez 5. Fernandez P. 11. Marinho 4. Titi
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Moreira N. ⚽, Hugo Moura (A),
39', Moreira N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lucas Sasha ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
46', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Paulo Henrique (A),
51', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
57', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
58', Mancuso E. ↓, Marinho ↑,
68', Marinho 🟥,
68', Coutinho 🟥,
77', Yago Pikachu ↓, Deyverson ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Lucas Piton (A),
87', Rayan ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
87', Hugo Moura ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
87', Moreira N. ↓, Adson ↑,
90', Breno Lopes ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
90+4', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
90+4', Tche Tche ↓, Lemos M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 3.

Vasco has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vasco has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Vasco: David (Knee Injury) Guilherme Estrella (Knee Injury) Lemos M. (Injury) Lucas Freitas (Heel Injury) Payet D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Diogo Barbosa (Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pedro Augusto (Inactive) Rodrigo (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.38%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Fortaleza - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.71%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Lanús - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT
- Fortaleza EC
Copa Libertadores
13.05.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Fortaleza - Colo-Colo	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.11.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	3:0
03.07.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	2:0
Copa do Brasil
21.05.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	4:3 penalties
01.05.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.23	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	1:0
27.05.23	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	2:0
10.02.21	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	3:0

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