Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Merkur Spiel-Arena (Düsseldorf)

Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Fortuna Düsseldorf		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.78	3.35	2.35	Watch
	2.87	3.55	2.52
	2.86	3.53	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.38
	2.93	3.45	2.38	Watch
	2.83	3.4	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (3.04)	3.42 ↓ (3.72)	2.41 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fortuna Düsseldorf
33.3%

Draw
27.6%

Paderborn
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

25.4%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

25.6%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Düsseldorf has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.8%	9.5%	66.7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Fortuna will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Paderborn will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna (votes: 2 - 40%). Paderborn (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Fortuna (2.19) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Paderborn (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 15. Oberdorf T. 2. Daland J. 4. Schmidt K. 25. Zimmermann M. 8. El Azzouzi A. 16. Tanaka S. 46. Suso S. 23. Appelkamp S. 24. Muslija F. 13. Itten C.	41. Seimen D. (G) 22. Hansen M. 20. Gotze F. 25. Scheller T. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 5. Castaneda S. 23. Obermair R. 26. Klaas S. 11. Michel S. 10. Okpala K.
Substitutes
14. Alexandropoulos S. 9. Celar Z. 30. de Wijs J. 19. Iyoha E. 3. Lenz C. 1. Lotka M. (G) 12. Lunddal V. 27. Paulina J. 10. Rasmussen C.	9. Batzner N. 6. Engelns L. 8. Kinsombi D. 30. Marino S. 2. Muller R. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S.
Coaches
Anfang M.	Kettemann R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Okpala K. ⚽, Obermair R. (A),
11', Castaneda S. 🟨,
45+4', Hansen M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Castaneda S. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
46', Okpala K. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
55', El Azzouzi A. 🟨,
58', Suso S. 🟨,
59', Zimmermann M. ↓, Lunddal V. ↑,
59', Suso S. ↓, Lenz C. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Appelkamp S. ⚽, Muslija F. (A),
66', Michel S. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
72', Hansen M. 🟨,
79', Klaas S. ↓, Kinsombi D. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Itten C. ⚽, Tanaka S. (A),
84', Itten C. ↓, Celar Z. ↑,
85', Gotze F. ↓, Marino S. ↑,
88', Appelkamp S. ↓, Alexandropoulos S. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation) and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fortuna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paderborn will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fortuna: Anhari H. (Inactive) Egouli E. (Red Card) Hettwer J. (Knee Injury) Rossmann T. (Illness) Schock F. (Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Paderborn: Brackelmann C. (Concussion) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortuna: Lunddal V. (Foot Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:34. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortuna won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
24.01.26	Hannover - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:1 ✺
16.01.26	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Slovan Liberec - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:3 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Elversberg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWWL
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
25.01.26	Paderborn - Preußen Münster	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	2:0 ✺
19.12.25	Paderborn - Darmstadt	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Karlsruher - Paderborn	0:4 ✺
06.12.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
23.08.25	Paderborn - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2
13.04.25	Paderborn - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2
09.11.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Paderborn	1:1
04.02.24	Paderborn - Fortuna Düsseldorf	4:3
19.08.23	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Paderborn	1:2
03.02.23	Paderborn - Fortuna Düsseldorf	4:1
22.07.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Paderborn	2:1

Upcoming Matches