Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paderborn		Darmstadt

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.45	3.05	Watch
	2.16	3.65	3.43
	2.16	3.6	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3
	2.15	3.44	3.21	Watch
	2.08	3.6	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.01)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)	3.2 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
44.1%

Draw
26.6%

Darmstadt
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

26.1%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

26.4%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Darmstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.4%	39.4%	18.2%

Paderborn - Darmstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 13 - 40.6%). Darmstadt will win (votes: 6 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 40.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 23.6% – 57.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 40%). Darmstadt (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Darmstadt (1.74) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Darmstadt (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Darmstadt (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 20%). Darmstadt (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 20. Gotze F. (C) 25. Scheller T. 22. Hansen M. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 26. Klaas S. 23. Obermair R. 11. Michel S. 9. Batzner N. 28. Copado L.	1. Schuhen M. (C) 2. Lopez S. 6. Pfeiffer P. 5. Maglica M. 32. Holland F. 17. Klefisch K. 16. Akiyama H. 23. Richter M. 34. Corredor K. 8. Marseiler L. 7. Lidberg I.
Substitutes
7. Bilbija F. 5. Castaneda S. 6. Engelns L. 30. Marino S. 2. Muller R. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S. 18. Worner M.	26. Bader M. 27. Bialek B. 30. Brunst A. (G) 44. Furukawa Y. 9. Hornby F. 15. Nurnberger F. 21. Papela M. 20. Vukotic A. 28. Will P.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Kohfeldt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Richter M. ⚽, Lidberg I. (A),
37', 0 - 2, Corredor K. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Copado L. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
54', 1 - 2, Baur M. ⚽, Curda L. (A),
57', Kettemann R. 🟨,
58', Akiyama H. 🟨,
62', Corredor K. ↓, Hornby F. ↑,
62', Akiyama H. ↓, Papela M. ↑,
73', Holland F. ↓, Nurnberger F. ↑,
73', Richter M. ↓, Bader M. ↑,
73', Hansen M. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
79', Michel S. 🟨,
84', 2 - 2, Klaas S. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Klaas S. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
86', Michel S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
90', Lidberg I. ↓, Vukotic A. ↑,
90+2', Baur M. ↓, Castaneda S. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2.

In recent matches, Paderborn has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Darmstadt is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paderborn is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Darmstadt: Hornby F. (Thigh Injury) Richter M. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 2.2:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Paderborn - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 46.21%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
13.12.25	Karlsruher - Paderborn	0:4 ✺
06.12.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Paderborn - Hannover	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Magdeburg - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLLW
- SV Darmstadt 98
German 2 Bundesliga
14.12.25	Darmstadt - Preußen Münster	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Darmstadt - Karlsruher	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Freiburg - Darmstadt	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
30.11.25	Elversberg - Darmstadt	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Darmstadt - Greuther Fürth	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
26.01.25	Darmstadt - Paderborn	0:1
11.08.24	Paderborn - Darmstadt	3:1
09.04.23	Darmstadt - Paderborn	2:1
30.09.22	Paderborn - Darmstadt	1:2
15.05.22	Darmstadt - Paderborn	3:0
11.12.21	Paderborn - Darmstadt	0:1
05.03.21	Paderborn - Darmstadt	2:3

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