Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Fossombrone		Maceratese

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.1	3.1
	2.17	3.21	3.12	Watch
	2.16	3.16	3.11
	2.2	3.1	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.28)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	3.11 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fossombrone
41.9%

Draw
28.9%

Maceratese
29.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.4%

26.4%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

26.2%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Maceratese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maceratese than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Fossombrone - Maceratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 10).

Fossombrone is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Maceratese has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fossombrone could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Fossombrone	9	4	1	4	12:17	-5	13
16	Maceratese	9	2	2	5	10:17	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	UniPomezia - Fossombrone	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fossombrone - Chieti	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fossombrone - Recanatese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Castelfidardo - Fossombrone	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWLT
- SS Maceratese
Italian Serie D - Group F
11.01.26	Maceratese - Ostia Mare	1:3 ✺
04.01.26	Vigor Senigallia - Maceratese	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Maceratese - Chieti	4:0 ✺
14.12.25	Giulianova - Maceratese	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Maceratese - UniPomezia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLW

Fossombrone - Maceratese