Match Info

GERMANY: Regionalliga Sudwest - Round 34

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday


	Freiberg		VfR Aalen

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.9	3.8
	1.66	4	4.33
	1.71	4.13	4.38
	1.68	4.14	4.39
	1.65	3.99	4.44
	1.63	4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.41)	4.03 ↓ (4.72)	4.26 ↓ (6.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiberg
55.4%

Draw
22.9%

VfR Aalen
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.6%

19.6%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.7%

18.4%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Freiberg's form might have worsened.

VfR Aalen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting VfR Aalen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiberg than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiberg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for VfR Aalen than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for VfR Aalen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Freiberg - VfR Aalen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Kruger L. ⚽,
7', 2 - 0, Gerezgiher J. ⚽,
40', 3 - 0, Kruger L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
77', 3 - 1, Rienhardt M. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 5 and 15 in the zone Relegation).

Aalen is Relegated to

Recent matches Freiberg is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aalen has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Freiberg is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Freiberg won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Freiberg won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SGV Freiberg
German Regionalliga Sudwest
11.05.24	Stuttgarter Kickers - Freiberg	1:0 ✺
04.05.24	Freiberg - TSV Steinbach Haiger	1:1 ✺
27.04.24	Mainz II - Freiberg	0:2 ✺
20.04.24	Freiberg - Hessen Kassel	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	TuS Koblenz - Freiberg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWTW
- VfR Aalen
German Regionalliga Sudwest
11.05.24	VfR Aalen - Astoria Walldorf	1:1 ✺
05.05.24	VfB Stuttgart II - VfR Aalen	1:0 ✺
28.04.24	VfR Aalen - FSV Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
20.04.24	Bahlinger - VfR Aalen	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	VfR Aalen - Schott Mainz	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Regionalliga Sudwest
11.11.23	VfR Aalen - Freiberg	2:1
26.11.22	VfR Aalen - Freiberg	2:1
06.08.22	Freiberg - VfR Aalen	1:2

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