Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	12:30	Disney+
Armenia	19:30	Fast Sports 2
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	02:30	beIN Connect
Austria	17:30	DAZN
Belgium	17:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	17:30	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	11:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	12:30	Disney+
China	23:30	Migu
Colombia	10:30	Disney+
Croatia	17:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	Viaplay
Finland	18:30	Viaplay
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	17:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	23:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, Now Player
Iceland	15:30	Viaplay
India	21:00	ZEE5
Israel	18:30	Sport 3
Japan	00:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	21:30	Setanta Sports
Malaysia	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	09:30	FOX One
Mongolia	23:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:30	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	17:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:30	Viaplay
Peru	10:30	Disney+
Philippines	23:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	18:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	18:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Sport 5
Singapore	23:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	00:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	22:30	AIS PLAY
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	12:30	Disney+
Usa	11:30	Peacock
Venezuela	11:30	Disney+
International	15:30	OneFootball TV


	Freiburg		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.1	5.25	Watch
	1.61	4.20	5.00
	1.62	3.95	5.2	Watch
	1.66	4.2	5.5
	1.68	4.12	4.79	Watch
	1.64	4.05	5.25
	1.63	4.15	5.31	Watch
	1.61	4.4	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.65)	4.15 ↓ (4.29)	5.19 ↑ (4.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
58.5%

Draw
23.1%

Schalke 04
18.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.6%

22.1%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

21%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	5.6%	2.8%

Freiburg - Schalke 04 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Schalke (2.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - SC Freiburg (1.70) (votes: 85%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.64% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Schalke (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Backhaus M. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. (C) 16. Engelhardt Y. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 7. Scherhant D. 31. Matanovic I.	1. Karius L. (G) 4. Kurucay H. 25. Katic N. 39. Wober M. 17. Gantenbein A. 23. El-Faouzi S. 13. Tanaka S. 8. Gosens R. 9. Sylla M. 19. Karaman K. (C) 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
42. Goto K. 32. Grifo V. 30. Gunter C. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 22. Irie C. 17. Kubler L. 6. Osterhage P. 37. Rosenfelder M.	24. Aouchiche A. 43. Ayhan M. 5. Becker T. 33. Becker V. 29. Dina Ebimbe J. 10. Dzeko E. 7. Hwang Hee-Chan 22. Muller K. (G) 6. Schallenberg R.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Eggestein M. ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Karaman K. ⚽, Gantenbein A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
58', Ginter M. 🟨,
64', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
65', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
69', Beste J. ↓, Irie C. ↑,
69', Engelhardt Y. ↓, Goto K. ↑,
69', Tanaka S. ↓, Schallenberg R. ↑,
69', Adamu J. ↓, Dzeko E. ↑,
79', Gantenbein A. ↓, Aouchiche A. ↑,
79', Wober M. ↓, Becker T. ↑,
79', Sylla M. ↓, Hwang Hee-Chan ↑,
83', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
83', Treu P. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Goto K. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
87', Hwang Hee-Chan 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 5.

Freiburg is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Schalke is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Freiburg carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Schalke: Ljubicic D. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Freiburg: Ogbus B. (Injury) Yilmaz B. (Knock).

Our forecast points to a victory for Freiburg in today's match, at odds of 1.64.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Freiburg has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:13 (averaging 1.5:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Freiburg against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 18:5 goals (averaging 1.8:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16:9	7	13
16	Schalke	7	1	3	3	4:7	-3	6

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.78% Schalke: 0.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Freiburg - Luzern	4:2
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Freiburg	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Paderborn - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWWW
- Schalke 04
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Austria Lustenau - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
24.09.26	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen - Schalke 04	2:5 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Union Berlin - Schalke 04	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Schalke 04 - Bayern Munich	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.04.23	Freiburg - Schalke 04	4:0
30.10.22	Schalke 04 - Freiburg	0:2
17.04.21	Freiburg - Schalke 04	4:0
16.12.20	Schalke 04 - Freiburg	0:2
27.06.20	Freiburg - Schalke 04	4:0
21.12.19	Schalke 04 - Freiburg	2:2
16.02.19	Schalke 04 - Freiburg	0:0

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