Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 36

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Fernando Torres (Fuenlabrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Fuenlabrada		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.15
	3.1	3	2.15
	3.15	3.2	2.2
	3.18	3.17	2.29
	3.11	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.22	3.22	2.23
	3.15	3.2	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.96)	3.16 ↑ (3.06)	2.2 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuenlabrada
29.2%

Draw
29.1%

Ceuta
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.9%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

30.1%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuenlabrada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Fuenlabrada - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz L. (G) 17. Ouacharaf B. 5. Alba D. 6. Alvaro Garcia 14. Barbosa A. 8. Ruiz Fer 15. Moyano A. 16. Aguza S. 11. Abde 9. Omoigui C. 7. Manu	13. Vallejo G. (G) 25. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 6. Hernandez C. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 8. Zalazar K. 5. Bellotti M. 3. Youness 19. Jamelli 22. Kone K. 9. Rodri
Substitutes
3. Barbu 13. Bloch F. (G) 20. Casas I. 23. Chang-Sang J. 19. Faure I. 26. Garcia M. 33. Gonzalez M. 35. Jaime R. 4. Mauro M. 21. Nene 12. Pinan A. 18. Sangare L.	7. Ahmed A. 23. Almenara G. 11. Aquino D. 20. Escudero A. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) 10. Rodriguez C. 32. Rodriguez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Cantero Y. ⚽,
34', Aguza S. 🟨,
37', Caparros A. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Omoigui C. ⚽,
41', Cantero Y. 🟨,
44', Moyano A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Caparros A. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
60', Bellotti M. ↓, Escudero A. ↑,
66', Rodri ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
71', Manu ↓, Faure I. ↑,
78', Barbosa A. ↓, Casas I. ↑,
86', Jamelli ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Herranz Corral V. ⚽,
90+4', Aquino D. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Fuenlabrada has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ceuta is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fuenlabrada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ceuta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Fuenlabrada won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Fuenlabrada won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Fuenlabrada - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 30.89%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.05.25	Atlético Madrid B - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Ibiza - Fuenlabrada	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alcoyano - Fuenlabrada	2:4 ✺
05.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Marbella	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLTWT
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.05.25	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Ceuta - Marbella	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
31.08.24	Ceuta - Fuenlabrada	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.02.23	Ceuta - Fuenlabrada	1:0
11.09.22	Fuenlabrada - Ceuta	2:1

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