Match Info

Primera Division - Clausura - Round 22

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
El Salvador	15:00	TCS GO


	Fuerte San Francisco		Alianza San Miguel

	1	X	2
	4.25	3.35	1.72
	4.3	3.41	1.77
	4.39	3.38	1.81	Watch
	4.49	3.36	1.72
	4.2	3.1	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.33 ↑ (4.2)	3.32 ↑ (3.1)	1.73 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuerte San Francisco
20.8%

Draw
27.1%

Alianza San Miguel
52.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

20.1%

27.3%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.3%

26.5%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuerte San Francisco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Alianza San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fuerte San Francisco than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Fuerte San Francisco - Alianza San Miguel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Portillo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Bello N. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: )).

Alianza is Qualified for Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fuerte won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Alianza is a strong favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fuerte won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 9:26. (average 0.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fuerte won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alianza FC	16	5	8	3	23:21	2	23
12	Fuerte San Francisco	17	2	6	9	14:29	-15	12

Last Results with these Odds

Fuerte San Francisco - the odds 4.2 are the expected chance of winning is 20.15%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Alianza San Miguel - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 52.56%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Fuerte San Francisco
El Salvador Primera Division
25.04.26	Isidro Metapán - Fuerte San Francisco	1:3 ✺
El Salvador Copa Presidente
21.04.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca	1:0 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
18.04.26	Zacatecoluca - Fuerte San Francisco	1:0 ✺
15.04.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Platense Municipal Zacatecoluca	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Fuerte San Francisco - Municipal Limeño	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWLTL
- Alianza San Miguel
El Salvador Primera Division
25.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - Zacatecoluca	4:2 ✺
El Salvador Copa Presidente
21.04.26	Isidro Metapán - Alianza San Miguel	1:1 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
18.04.26	Municipal Limeño - Alianza San Miguel	0:0 ✺
15.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - Águila	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - CD FAS	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

El Salvador Primera Division
07.03.26	Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco	3:2
16.11.25	Fuerte San Francisco - Alianza San Miguel	1:3
14.09.25	Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco	1:0
18.05.25	Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco	2:0
15.05.25	Fuerte San Francisco - Alianza San Miguel	0:1
23.04.25	Fuerte San Francisco - Alianza San Miguel	1:0
26.02.25	Alianza San Miguel - Fuerte San Francisco	2:0

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